Luxor4u

Well not quite – unless you read al Ahram. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent ... ral-A.aspx

According to the Egyptian FM it’s a ‘conscience’ issue and Egypt drafted the 'resolution' to the Security Council – which the US then vetoed as was always expected – and now its to go to the General Assembly. No mention in al Ahram that the General Assembly has no power on such issues and its resolutions are non-binding and therefore just a piece of cheap theater that will change nothing.

(Before you go on – realize that the following is a cynical view – but that doesn’t mean its all wrong)

If it’s a conscience issue, as Egypt itself says, then its time for Egypt to act on the conscience it says the matter is and refuse the $US1.3 billion in US gift it gets each year (second largest in the world – after Israel), expel the US Ambassador etc. Maybe the Egypt FM could be held to account – for his mishandling of the Jared Kushner visit to Egypt and the low influence Egypt currently has with Washington (and with the world). Maybe conscience should lead him to resign because of failure. Too much to hope for.

On the other hand, if only Palestine (in its dreams) could rely on such strong conscientious actions from its ‘brothers/eternal allies’ – as if it ever could in the last 70 years.

Maybe Egypt could give Palestine some international aid – at the moment its less (a lot less) than $US10 million a year whereas the US gives 70 times that amount and more than all the Arab and Muslim countries in the world – combined. Maybe Egypt could open its borders with (the hated) Gaza for the first time in years? The worst that could happen is that the Iranian zealots dominant in Gaza get over the border into Egypt - and who ever suggested that Egypt loathed and saw a threat from the Palestinians that it now procliams as a 'conscience' issue?. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pale ... SKCN1B81KC What could be wrong with that?

Pragmatists would say - its now time for the region to back 7 decades of its own hysterical rhetoric with some simple practical, painful, expensive action to 'solve' the overall issue – but we know the answer - as if.

Maybe the Palestinians could take some practical action in their own practical interests and refuse all electricity, gas and petrol from Israel – and starve and die quickly. Maybe they could refuse to send their tens of thousands of profitable day workers (70-80,000 but probably more) into Israel each day. As if.

Maybe Jordan could give some of its own land which it won in a previous war over Palestine to the 3 million Palestinians within Jordan as their homeland? Maybe the Arab states could block oil supplies to the US? As if.

None of this will happen – because it all involves pain – or maybe just inconvenience/financial cost. Who ever suggested that high rhetoric/moral integrity should stand in the way of inconvenience/cost? So we are left in a situation that there is no alternative to arrogant unilateral US/Israeli action - when was it any different?

The Middle East countries have fought and been resoundingly defeated in 3 wars against Israel – in the course of which they managed to loose Jerusalem which they had ‘got’ after 46/47 - and its now for the Arabs to assemble and pay for a new million man army to destroy Israel. Maybe it will be 4th time lucky? The worst that could happen is they get nuked and their regimes and armies collapse. How could a few million dead ‘citizens’ ever have been an issue for a Middle East government?

In the real world Saudi, Lebanon and Jordan (less so but still pretty tepid) http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/03/opini ... index.html are ‘a bit quiet’ on this issue. The Arab League is silent – although its salaried Cairo-based officials seem to have woken up and issued a statement – a formal meeting of leaders to co-ordinate a unified approach is probably months away – if at all. When have they ever agreed on a common approach on anything? Al Jazeera describes the region as ‘indifferent’ to the Palestinian issue – except with cheap rhetoric – and entirely unengaged over generations in any attempt to try and solve the issue diplomatically. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio ... 56909.html

The Arab League ‘counter-idea’ of proclaiming Jerusalem the capital of the Palestinian state ignores the screamingly obvious – the Palestinians have been fighting amongst themselves and their ‘state’ has been implacably divided into two ‘independent’ and warring regions for most of the past decade – and those two can’t agree on anything and have staunchly refused one capital in Ramallah. So the diplomatic/political 'leader' in the region is backing an idea that their Palestinian' brothers couldn't even agree on - as if they ever agreed on anything in common. (Pardon me if I think the locals irrational).

An opportunity for some – Russia, as the new Arab ally and peace maker/honest broker? Could pose a problem for its very close connection with Israel.

The opinion of the 1.6 million or so Palestinians/Arabs who live in and are citizens of Israel would be interesting. When asked by independent pollsters on all previous occasions they always give the same majority answer. They want anything but to be part of a Palestinian State. Who would choose to be part of Palestine? The riots of the past few weeks seem to have been in Palestine not from the Palestinian Israelis (there might be small exceptions to this in Jerusalem) so its reasonable to assume they are aggrieved but generally quiet because they understand that the inevitable is happening.

I realize the above view is a bit hard-hearted and generally my sympathies are with the Palestinians – but its based on a realistic view of where the real power lies and its in US and Israeli hands bolstered by the new US ally Saudi. The rest are disorganized, half hearted, deeply compromised but know where their meals come from and have done nothing to solve the problem in two generations of rhetoric.

At the end of the day the larger issue will be solved diplomatically with a $US100 billion gift, some land from Egypt, 1.6 million Palestinians staying in Israel and the two Palestinian warring groups getting together and agreeing on the time of day. The US and Israel, but not the Arab states, will likely pay most of the bills. Following this the Palestinian State will blow and pillage all the money and everything will continue as before for 4.5 million impoverished and unemployed Palestinians who will continue to fight amongst themselves.

I object to some western press that presents this as just another Trump ‘out of the blue’ fiasco. The Congress passed this resolution ages ago and Presidents, including Obama, have used executive power to refuse to implement this democratic decision. This has been looming since 1995 when the Senate voted 93–5, and the House 374–37. An overwhelming number of Democratic Party politicians voted for it – although they now scream blue murder at the implementation of their own Party’s decision. If it was such a bad idea they have had 22 years to repeal the legislation - and they haven't even got a majority of voters to think about it.

The timing and rough handling of the matter by Trump is another issue. Its also true that the 'neighbors' have done little - possibly nothing - to resolve the bigger issue regarding their 'beloved Palestinian' brothers let alone the inevitability of the current US decision. Its a region full of rhetoric - but no practical action.

There's nothing in the above I would take issue with Hafiz.

I'm not even sure what all the fuss is about. The US "recognises" Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. So what?

He went on to say - although precious little attention seems to have been given to it - that this move did not prejudge the question of where the border (by inference, in Jerusalem) would lie between Israel and any Palestine State created in a two state final settlement. By the unanimous edict of the UN ....that question remains unanswered. Perhaps it's unanswerable.

What to make of this? The tenor of the Israeli reaction to the announcement is that the US had conceded their right to the whole of Jerusalem..and in particular the holy sites of East Jerusalem. I don't think Trump said that at all!

Quite why he had to say anything is beyond me. He might be a bit of an idiot on several fronts but he can't have failed to appreciate the likely reaction to his move. Perhaps all will become clear when the dust settles and more is revealed of his long term strategy with regard to the Israeli-Palestine conflict.

Assuming he has a strategy.

Or maybe he judged that, after a bit of predictable huffing and puffing, the event would fade into obscurity...and he could tick off another campaign promise delivered.

Hafiz is spot on with his realistic (not at all cynical) comments that the Arab world is largely disinterested in the fate of the Palestinians. I should qualify that by saying 'the Arab governments'.....which, in the absence of any meaningful democracy amongst them, is what we're talking about. Jordan administered what is now described as Palestine for several decades without considering the creation of a Palestine state.

The mood on the street is ugly. Many of my young Egyptian acquaintances are ready to take up arms and lay down their lives if necessary to redress this insult to their Palestinian brethren. And it's not just "drama queen" rhetoric . I believe many of them would....despite the fact that Israel , backed by US, would wipe the floor with them. They'd see it as glorious martyrdom

But their mothers need not worry. More pragmatic heads rule the roost in Egypt...and elsewhere in the region.

The main issues in the Middle East today concern the Iran v KSA struggle for supremacy, and terrorism. The Palestinians are a sideshow...of dwindling relevance,

You say 'I assume he has a strategy' - why would you assume this - his attention span is 5 seconds. What strategy, indeed what single thought, can be as short as 5 seconds.

Lets just agree that his strategic thinking is no worse than the Brexiteers. Wouldn't that be a positive assumption that would 'flatter' all interested and related UK parties. How could they possibly take exception to that?

I'm sure you take my general point about the non-rational rhetoric of Arabic diplomacy. What I did not make clear is the evil influence it has on Arabic opinion. In simple terms the Ahmed on the street is conscientious about Palestine, believes his government is so, and is incited by his government to loathe US policy (both now and in the past and ignoring that the US pays the bills and maintains the 'peace'). Such opinion is not based on reality but is based on his own government dissembling press releases, and the illusion, from their own governments, about 'Arabic Heroism' to support the Palestinians - none of which ever happens. From a practical point of view this creates a street opinion which is very different to the reality of what their governments actually do - in secret or by acquiescence.

There seems no preparedness by any government in the region to tell their people the facts - 'we have fought 3 wars to destroy Israel - we have lost them all - Israel is here to stay - as victor Israel gets to set the rules - the Palestinians may have justice on their side but they have no unity and are corrupt - or worse'.

What I find interesting is one question - given the cynical and disinterested/uninterested nature of regional interest in the Palestinians (Jordan regarded them as a threat in the 70's and killed them and tossed many out - including Egyptian Arafat) - why has a unified or even seemingly unified regional pressure on Israel not achieved, or seemed to achieved, a result. Put it another way what region in the world hands over its deepest problem for resolution to outsiders? I think the answer is that the region can't agree on the time of day on anything and, as always, wants the 'loathed' dad to fix it. At the least after the event the child can immediately reject 'dad's' solution - if it is 'convenient' to maintain support from 'citizens'.

At the end of the day the biggest force on Israel to be sensible/just wont be unified Arabic government opinion (which does not exist) but the US, and to a lesser extent general western, political pressure/threats/opinion.

There is something deeply rotten in regional relations and regional diplomatic practice/rhetoric - and why should anyone be surprised. At a practical level, and bearing in mind the Palestinians are wretched, the financial meanness of rich Arab states and the wastefulness/corruption of the Palestinian leadership is pure evil.

You know as well as I do that there has been 70 years of extreme suffering and no-one cares much and those whose responsibility it is to care do little. Worse still some claim the public moral high ground and to care - but do the opposite whilst maintaining an illusion. It was ever thus. If you are a poor, powerless, disunited, small, dispossessed people with treacherous allies - no-one cares - or can be bothered. Only al Ahram and Middle East street 'opinion' believes otherwise.

What bothers me is, if all the institutions move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, where will they find all the land to build their offices.
Jerusalem and it's surrounding area is not that big.....

Hafiz....

You say 'I assume he has a strategy'

Not quite. Perhaps you missed the cynicism inherent in the words I actually used.

From a practical point of view this (Government rhetoric) creates a street opinion which is very different to the reality of what their governments actually do

Absolutely. And it's always useful to deflect public anger to a third party when your own domestic policies are a source of discontent.

At the end of the day the biggest force on Israel to be sensible/just wont be unified Arabic government opinion (which does not exist) but the US, and to a lesser extent general western, political pressure/threats/opinion.

And Hell will freeze over before the US or the West apply any meaningful pressure on Israel.

Maybe Trump's aim is to focus the minds of the Palestinians. In effect he's saying "look...forget about Jerusalem. Israel's having it. You need to concentrate on what's left...or resign yourselves to the status quo, in which you'll never have a sovereign state, ad infinitum".

I share your cynicism about world geopolitics. In fact I'm cynical about the human race as a whole.

Who2 you make a good point.

There is no space and most buildings are heritage protected. However consider the real problem.

When they build the thing it will be the number one target in the world for human body bombers, rocket propelled grenades, drone driven missiles, people incinerating themselves etc. They will need 5 acres, 10 feet deep moats, 5 foot deep front walls, helicopter pads for evacuations, built in troop accommodation for 100 marines, emplaced machine gun nests etc.

I assume that the CIA/US Military told them long ago - don't do it because it can't be done - not short of a Fort Knox costing $US500 million.

In any event getting in and out will mean that the US Ambassador has to be driven down 3rd century streets in his amour plated 10 ton car at 3 miles an hour and will live 5 minutes before someone kills him.

I've never been to Jerusalem, and have only a general idea of the geography of the city, but surely any US embassy, or any other embassies, will be in West Jerusalem ....land which is pretty much accepted as within the borders of Israel?

Could this be Trumps new strategic policy, start wars and back away before the first bullet is fired. A good and interesting post, cannot see Egypt forgoing the 1.3 USD though, the Country is run like it thinks so that will be a NO NO. Take Take Take, but No Give. Someone some day in the Western World, it may be Trump, it may be someone else is going to take a sharp look in this economic World turmoil and look deeply into the foreign aid policy and start asking where the aid money is going!