An Arab winter?
Posted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:58 am
With the recent military coup in Egypt, and the volatile and unsettled situation in the country the question has to be posed, is this indeed the start of a protracted Arab winter?
The main problem is Egypt right now are a rapidly increasing overpopulation, and an equally rapidly diminishing resources, this in addition to the current political situation.
It is a complicated situation that is a given, with western backing for the Egyptian army it leaves the country in a precarious position, yes it may be the Muslim Brotherhood has authoritarian tendencies and an ambition to use power for itself. These arise from successfully surviving as an underground during many decades of torture, imprisonment, infiltration and banning by the US-supported Mubarak dictatorship, and the Brotherhood won the democratic parliamentary elections of 2011–12, Morsi won the presidential election of June 2012 and the December 2012 referendum on the new constitution.
These are the facts that cannot be denied, and completely legitimate.
It is claimed by the anti-Brotherhood forces that Morsi turned dictatorial last November when declaring himself temporarily immune from judicial review. That act triggered formation of the new National Salvation Front led by several former presidential candidates.
Morsi’s dilemma was that he faced absolute opposition from the Mubarak-era judiciary, and so circumvented their obduracy to push the constitutional measure as a voter referendum. From his point of view, Morsi had no choice. From the opposition view, he became the new Mubarak. The heart of the dispute was the Brotherhood’s quest for a more Islamic form of governance against the opposition’s implacable opposition to the Brotherhood’s having any legitimacy. But if Morsi was wrong in sending the constitution to a popular vote, his manoeuvre was ratified by a democratic vote.
On the other hand, the new “tamarod” (rebellion) movement, which claims to have collected 20 million petitions, had no constitutional basis whatever for petitioning the Supreme Constitutional Court for a presidential recall (Congressional Research Service report, June 27). It doesn’t seem to matter now that this entirely novel proposal has been bypassed by the generals who, in turn, are scrambling to justify their deeds.
Without US funding, Egypt would collapse.
The economic assistance has been cut by more than half the amount that was allocated during the Mubarak years, despite the evidence that the Egyptian economy today is a basket case (malnutrition and poverty rising, crime spiking, a stagnant GDP of 2.2 percent last year.
They are seeking to impose IMF austerity measures, that would cut subsidies for food and gas.
It would seem the Egyptian army has led the country into a new uncharted situation, and one of real danger
For the moment, the mainstream media and many progressives might be celebrating the exuberant street protests as evidence of “second chance” for democracy in Egypt. Certainly Egyptian liberals, revolutionaries, Facebook bloggers, womens’ rights groups and others have reason to feel heady, even ecstatic, at the experience of accomplishing another revolution from below so quickly. But sooner rather than later, the headaches will return. The country is paralyzed by division: the Islamists split between Brotherhood and Salafists; the secular liberals, students, women and intellectuals representing only 20 percent of the population; the self-interested, US-financed army a force serving its own interests.
There is no doubt that Morsi had made some headway, from a rational perspective of national interests, Morsi was an independent and constructive force. Morsi was a mediator between Israel and Hamas in the ceasefire agreement of 2012. He also tried to mediate indirect Israel-Hamas discussions after the ceasefire, and the talks among the Palestinian factions aimed at closing the gap between Fatah and Hamas. Two-thirds of Israelis in late 2012 said Morsi had a positive impact on diminishing Gaza violence.
The few Americans—some of them in high places—who believe that deepening chaos in the Arab world is somehow good for the Israelis, and therefore good for the United States, tend also to indulge in visions of Armageddon and the Apocalypse. They may be quietly rejoicing now, but the future they fantasize is one of perpetual war with its inevitable blowback. Their less-religious brethren in the national security state have a parallel preference for maintaining sectarian divisions, or sometimes sectarian dictatorships, against the perceived threat of nationalist unity anywhere in the Third World. They are pleased, on the whole, that their bloody Mubarak era has passed without giving rise to a unified nationalist Egyptian state standing up in the midst of the seething Arab world, one that would make the Arab oil monarchies tremble on their thrones and even force the Israelis to face a formidable new ally for the Palestinians at the tables of negotiation.
The gates of Hell are swinging loose.
Read more: The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter? | The Nation http://www.thenation.com/article/175121 ... z2YFYsSlsr
Follow us: @thenation on Twitter | TheNationMagazine on Facebook
The main problem is Egypt right now are a rapidly increasing overpopulation, and an equally rapidly diminishing resources, this in addition to the current political situation.
It is a complicated situation that is a given, with western backing for the Egyptian army it leaves the country in a precarious position, yes it may be the Muslim Brotherhood has authoritarian tendencies and an ambition to use power for itself. These arise from successfully surviving as an underground during many decades of torture, imprisonment, infiltration and banning by the US-supported Mubarak dictatorship, and the Brotherhood won the democratic parliamentary elections of 2011–12, Morsi won the presidential election of June 2012 and the December 2012 referendum on the new constitution.
These are the facts that cannot be denied, and completely legitimate.
It is claimed by the anti-Brotherhood forces that Morsi turned dictatorial last November when declaring himself temporarily immune from judicial review. That act triggered formation of the new National Salvation Front led by several former presidential candidates.
Morsi’s dilemma was that he faced absolute opposition from the Mubarak-era judiciary, and so circumvented their obduracy to push the constitutional measure as a voter referendum. From his point of view, Morsi had no choice. From the opposition view, he became the new Mubarak. The heart of the dispute was the Brotherhood’s quest for a more Islamic form of governance against the opposition’s implacable opposition to the Brotherhood’s having any legitimacy. But if Morsi was wrong in sending the constitution to a popular vote, his manoeuvre was ratified by a democratic vote.
On the other hand, the new “tamarod” (rebellion) movement, which claims to have collected 20 million petitions, had no constitutional basis whatever for petitioning the Supreme Constitutional Court for a presidential recall (Congressional Research Service report, June 27). It doesn’t seem to matter now that this entirely novel proposal has been bypassed by the generals who, in turn, are scrambling to justify their deeds.
Without US funding, Egypt would collapse.
The economic assistance has been cut by more than half the amount that was allocated during the Mubarak years, despite the evidence that the Egyptian economy today is a basket case (malnutrition and poverty rising, crime spiking, a stagnant GDP of 2.2 percent last year.
They are seeking to impose IMF austerity measures, that would cut subsidies for food and gas.
It would seem the Egyptian army has led the country into a new uncharted situation, and one of real danger
For the moment, the mainstream media and many progressives might be celebrating the exuberant street protests as evidence of “second chance” for democracy in Egypt. Certainly Egyptian liberals, revolutionaries, Facebook bloggers, womens’ rights groups and others have reason to feel heady, even ecstatic, at the experience of accomplishing another revolution from below so quickly. But sooner rather than later, the headaches will return. The country is paralyzed by division: the Islamists split between Brotherhood and Salafists; the secular liberals, students, women and intellectuals representing only 20 percent of the population; the self-interested, US-financed army a force serving its own interests.
There is no doubt that Morsi had made some headway, from a rational perspective of national interests, Morsi was an independent and constructive force. Morsi was a mediator between Israel and Hamas in the ceasefire agreement of 2012. He also tried to mediate indirect Israel-Hamas discussions after the ceasefire, and the talks among the Palestinian factions aimed at closing the gap between Fatah and Hamas. Two-thirds of Israelis in late 2012 said Morsi had a positive impact on diminishing Gaza violence.
The few Americans—some of them in high places—who believe that deepening chaos in the Arab world is somehow good for the Israelis, and therefore good for the United States, tend also to indulge in visions of Armageddon and the Apocalypse. They may be quietly rejoicing now, but the future they fantasize is one of perpetual war with its inevitable blowback. Their less-religious brethren in the national security state have a parallel preference for maintaining sectarian divisions, or sometimes sectarian dictatorships, against the perceived threat of nationalist unity anywhere in the Third World. They are pleased, on the whole, that their bloody Mubarak era has passed without giving rise to a unified nationalist Egyptian state standing up in the midst of the seething Arab world, one that would make the Arab oil monarchies tremble on their thrones and even force the Israelis to face a formidable new ally for the Palestinians at the tables of negotiation.
The gates of Hell are swinging loose.
Read more: The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter? | The Nation http://www.thenation.com/article/175121 ... z2YFYsSlsr
Follow us: @thenation on Twitter | TheNationMagazine on Facebook
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