Unusual Presidential Voting Patterns in Luxor

[Hafiz]

The results in Luxor for the first round of the Presidential elections have been surprising and show the volatility of politics in Egypt and the uniqueness of Luxor.

In the Parliamentary elections in 2011 Luxor gave a strong vote for the Brotherhood and maybe also for the Salafis – locals will know the details.

In the recent round of Presidential elections the Luxor area voted for the secular (and well armed) Shafiq. The electorates to the north (Sohag and Qena) and to the south (Aswan) voted for Mursi. In fact Mursi achieved a majority in all of the Nile river electorates (and others) with the exception of the delta. Luxor stands out as an exception to this overall trend (al Ahram 27 May).

An anecdotal news report widely syndicated (Hannah Allam Montreal Gazette 24 May) paints a picture of real concern in Luxor about the current state of tourism and the need for a strong “armed” President. A clear view seems to be that the Islamic candidates would be death to the industry. Significantly, some interviewed saw the benefits of different voting for different positions to avoid a concentration of power in one set of hands. This shows a heartening political sophistication – but maybe this was always there but no opportunity to show it.

Another view given to the journalist was the need to diversify the industry base of the city and to move away from an overwhelming reliance on one, and fickle, industry.

Overall there might be some big shifts underway. When you look at the country-wide vote (al Ahram) the non-Islamists received 57% (these figures include Abdul Fotouh in the Islamist camp). Wikipedia page on the 2011-12 Parliamentary elections gives the Islamist vote as a minimum of 65% against the most recent result of 43%, a reduction of a third.

In Qena province overall the brotherhood came third behind foloul and revolutionary candidates although in Upper Egypt overall Morsi was a big winner. Generally the Brotherhood and “friends” did well in rural and very rural areas whilst all of the others did best in urban areas and cities. In this picture Luxor stands out as a major exception.

Forum members will know that voting turnout was poor – maybe below 40% and well down on the Parliamentary elections. This is baffling given the sacrifices made 16 months ago and the suffering since. It would be interesting to know the turnouts by governate and in Luxor.

Forum members might also know that at least one unsuccessful Presidential candidate is questioning the voting roll – apparently it has increased by five million since the Parliamentary elections – wonders and the power of the army never cease – this is a miracle that just keeps on giving.

[Hafiz]

My figures on turnout were wrong. The Egyptian Gazette gives the turnout as 46% for the recent Presidential elections. This is still a lot lower than the 59%-65% turnout for the first phases of the Parliamentary elections and about the same as for the subsequent run off phases of those elections.

It is still surprising that so few turned up to vote in such difficult times - but 46% is still higher than some recent US congressional elections and not hugely less than one recent UK election and no one questions the commitment to democracy of those two countries.

[LivinginLuxor]

But, as I wrote on another thread, the turnout varied enormously. The big cities had turnouts of between 55-60%, whereas Upper Egypt was down in the 30% range - Luxor at 29% and Qena at 23%. It does say a lot about political awareness in this area!

[Lewroll]

Is it possible that turnout was down in some places (like Luxor) because many voters were away working in other areas (like Hurghada, Sharm etc) and so were not able to vote? Postal voting in Egypt? I suspect not ................

[Winged Isis]

That is quite likely. Every time we visit Hurghada, every second person we see is a friend or relative, or someone who knows a friend or relative of my husband, from Luxor. We have even met some in Cairo, and know others work at Sharm.

Many, like my husband, exercised their right not to vote as they did not like any of the candidates or agree with their policies. I have the same problem in our elections, and know I am not alone. Our voting is compulsory.

[carrie]

Perhaps the voters in Luxor are more sophisticated that L in L presumes, a lot of people I know had decided that since there seemed to be only two options open to them, the Army and the old regime v the MB's they decided to withold their vote in protest.

[Winged Isis]

My point exactly. Got to disagree with you, Stan. From what I've been hearing, they are very serious about and interested in making informed decisions. In fact it is 1:00am and we are up watching Sabahi on TV!

[LivinginLuxor]

Several people I know liked Sabahi, but did they vote for him? I was even surprised when the taxi I was in followed a van, with a photo pasted on the back. "That is a good man, he should be president" said the driver - and of course it was Sabahi. In the urban areas he came either second or a close third - so if he was so popular here, why did he not get more votes? Was he popular with those who didn't vote cos they didn't like the leading contenders?

[Teddyboy]

"exercised their right not to vote"

Did anyone else see the report where one of the bigwigs was quoted as saying that the Egyptian people had waited 7000 years for this opportunity? But here we are in reality, in Luxor, with people exercising 'their right not to vote'. I find it unbelievable and shameful!

[DJKeefy]

This is what I posted on facebook...

At the village the other day we started talking about politics and the two Presidential finalists Mursi and Shafiq, I was not sure if it was right to ask who they had voted for, but in the end I did, to my surprise most of them had voted for Mursi (Muslim Brotherhood Party). I was shocked at first cause a few months ago they where telling me that they did not want Muslim Brotherhood or the Salafis party to win cause they would control the people more than Mubarak did and was worried it would turn Egypt into a place like Iran.

A few of the guys at the village work on the floating hotels and in other tourist work, yet at the moment they are laid off due to the lack of tourists

So what changed their minds to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood party? they now tell me Mursi will look for the Egyptian people and also will boost tourism, they wont stop things like alcohol and same sex beaches etc, its quite a different story from what they were saying at the village a few months ago, So Mursi most have pushed the right buttons and said the right things to change their opinions.

Another thing that suprised me (and im not sure if it was just excuses) 7 of them did not vote at all, when I asked why, they said there was no point cause it will be all fixed, maybe that's why they was such a low turnout from Luxor.

[Hafiz]

On turnout rates - I think you will find an exact relationship between literacy rates by governate and voting participation rates.

Some of the religious leaders (Al Ahzar I think) said it was a religious obligation to vote. They may have even issued a fatwa on this.

So called 'protest' votes amongst informed people is another matter.

I wonder where these Egyptians are getting this idea that a 'protest' vote is going to achieve anything - although I can understand their suspicion (based on experience) that the vote could be rigged. In Cairo where this idea is often stated to the media it comes from urban middle class kids who want ideological purity or a delay until the constitution is settled etc. It makes less sense in Luxor. What did people think they were going to achieve by this?

[BBLUX]

We have just come back from a visit to the Red Sea resorts during the voting.
There was a lot of discussion about the potential candidates and we were actually asked to express our opinion as the people working in tourism were keen to hear our views.
It was also frequently stated that most people working at the Red Sea resorts came from other places, mainly upper Egypt and they felt disenfranchised because they were not permitted to vote unless they travelled back to their home towns...not something they could reasonably do without leaving the hotels very short staffed. So, why then were Egyptian expats given the ability to vote without returning to Egypt?
I read somewhere that around 5 million Egyptians work in tourism and as stated above most work away from their home towns. That is 10% of those eligible to vote.

[TonyC]

It's interesting that Keefy found support for the Brotherhood among tourism workers. Friends, who rely on trade from feluccas, car trips, etc (not part of the organised sector) say that the "tourist people" are going round telling them to vote for Shafiq because the Brothers are out to harm tourism!

[Teddyboy]

What people say and do in public is very often the opposite of what they say or do in private, especially when they believe they might have something to fear in either circumstance!