Election

[Horus]

The reality of the situation is quite simple, in any election you try and get the people who voted for the other party to change their minds and vote for you, that did not happen. All that Corbyn has done is to motivate that section of the electorate that usually can’t be bothered to vote by offering them something they want, in this case free tuition, so he has not changed anyone’s mind about Labour policies, the electorate still rejected him and his support was only bolstered by a one trick pony. He actually can’t increase that sector by very much in the future and in fact it may well reduce as maybe a few of these knowledgeable and worldly wise (not ) new voters start to figure out which party actually introduced the tuition fees they are rebelling about in the first place, can someone remind me?

[Zooropa]

Better a Thompson Twin than a bitter 5th columnist

[newcastle]

The elegant response to wind-ups is to ignore them.

Try to be elegant.

[Horus]

Better a Thompson Twin than a bitter 5th columnist

Could be something in that Z, most of the cold war traitors and KGB spies were recruited from OxBridge.

[Zooropa]

The elegant response to wind-ups is to ignore them.

Try to be elegant.

With all due respects if i want any guidance on elegance or anything else i will decide who i get it from and you can be sure that my judgement on that is better than the Tory party's.


In any case, my genuine opinion must always take precedence over niceties.

[newcastle]

The Conservatives will be hoping this is one bit of history that doesn't repeat itself:

The United Kingdom general election of October 1974 took place on 10 October 1974 to elect 635 members of the House of Commons of the United Kingdom. It was the second general election of that year, and resulted in the Labour Party led by Harold Wilson winning an overall majority of just 3 seats.

The election of February that year had produced an unexpected hung parliament.

Coalition talks between the Conservatives and other parties such as the Liberals and the Ulster Unionists failed, allowing Labour leader Harold Wilson to form a minority government.

The October campaign was not as vigorous or exciting as the one in February. Despite continuing high inflation, Labour was able to boast that it had ended the miners' strike, which had dogged Heath's premiership, and had returned some stability. The Conservative Party, still led by Edward Heath, released a manifesto promoting national unity; however, its chances of forming a government were hindered by the Ulster Unionist Party refusing to take the Conservative whip at Westminster, in response to the Sunningdale Agreement of 1973.

[Horus]

Why does everyone keep talking about a coalition? For a start there is no way that Corbyn can form a government even if he had everyone else on his side and who says that all the labour MP’s would back his manifesto proposals in Parliament? Most of them are still right of centre and they have had no inclination to do so up to now, there would be many abstentions. As for the Conservatives, well they are not asking for a coalition, just an understanding that they will be supported by the DUP on some key issues on a “confidence and supply” basis, a formalising of something that happens now in the majority of Parliamentary voting when they usually walk through the division lobby with the Conservatives. The DUP are not going to vote with Labour in any event, so what is gong to change in that respect?

[Hafiz]

Correct me if I’m wrong.

The UK made its most important decision in decades to Brexit by a small majority.

Both parties are hopelessly split on Brexit, including in the Parliamentary party so there was never a solid Brexit party determined to implement Brexit.

At that point most would have said that there was a weak basis for implementation given that Brexit would be mainly pain and this would affect both public support and Parliamentary votes over the protracted negotiating period.

Therefore it was always a big ask – like going to war with an unclear strategy, an uncertain outcome, a bare majority of troops, the certainty of mutiny and a fickle home front that could turn if things got hard. I forgot - also third rate generals and a business constituency opposed to Brexit. Not what I would call a broad and deep determination.

Nevertheless, the Conservatives, internally split, opted to implement Brexit, with a slim Parliamentary majority and tried to strengthen the odds by going for an early election to get an increased majority and silence dissent within its parliamentary ranks.

The result is that the Conservatives are in office but not in power – arguments about votes are irrelevant if you don’t have a majority on the floor. They previously had a majority of MP's, they don’t now – that looks like they lost what they previously had. The other thing lost is May's credibility - she has now demonstrated in 6 weeks what I suspected - she is a third rater, not bright and with a very unfortunate personal manner unsuited to building broad based support for hard decisions - her leadership skills were always doubtful.

Was Brexit ever going to work with a polarized country split pretty evenly?

Heseltine has some free advice. Deal with the specifics. Immigration and social services/health. First, half of immigration is non-EU – cut that (the Conservatives previously refused). Second, students are counted as immigrants yet few stay. Reclassify this group to non-immigrants. Third, start taxing the super rich to fund services eg abolish non-doms (Lord Ashcroft, the Goldsmiths et al), chase the multinationals/profit transfers etc.

Meanwhile an early further election suits no party. Some Conservatives want May to stay where her corpse will become a rotting heap following which almost anybody – Gow, Boris – will look a good option. It will also mean she is hostage to her Cabinet and backbench – many of whom aren’t Brexiteers and giving them private influence without the painful responsibilities of public power. At this stage only a fool would want her job.

I think the question is whether any stable government can now be formed to implement a Hard Brexit. Is anyone suggesting that there is a near prospect in a further election of a strong majority and united Conservative government to implement this?

The EU position remains the same – exit must be very painful to deter others. The UK negotiating position with the EU is now hugely worse ensuring that Brexit will now be very, very painful.

The Ulster terrorists are now denying there is a supply and confidence deal in place – thus contradicting May who now seems incapable of even getting her press releases accurate. No 10 has now issued a correction. Any soft border in Ireland will open the door for a special deal for Scotland. I imagine those Black and Tans will want something.

[newcastle]

@ Horus

You're missing my point....which was the historic parallels of the situation in 1974.

Heath, despite having a working majority, called a snap election in Feb in order to clarify "Who rules Britain" He expected a clear victory and was disappointed when the result was a hung parliament.

As the incumbent he had first chance to form a government in coalition with others...but failed.

He resigned and Wilson took over as PM with a minority administration supported by other parties. It was clearly unstable and another election in October resulted in a clear majority, albeit of only 3 seats, for Labour.

We'll have to see how stable the current Conservative minority government is. Not many pundits give it much of a chance of surviving long term.

So another election will have to be fought, possibly later this year or early next year.

The political situation in 1974, the issues at stake. the relative strengths of the major parties etc. were, of course, very different to those pertaining today. You're perfectly entitled to be optimistic about an eventual Conservative administration with a sound majority ( i.e a return to the status quo ante).

I think the moral of the story has something to do with the counting of chickens

[Hafiz]

Policies like Brexit which split major parties can change the whole political landscape just as Ireland did before and after WW1. In this country it was conscription in WW1.

This current issue cuts across traditional party lines, left/right divisions and even traditional class and regional allegiances and makes getting votes and keeping party unity hard. Easier in the past to line up the troops and voters on the tried and true tax/spend, left/right, north/south, poor/rich, blue/white collar lines.

I think that this is just the type of non-traditional issue which the Conservatives, or Labor were it in power, are very bad at handling but are now part of the landscape: multiculturalism, human rights, minority rights, climate change, disparities in wealth, whether capitalism works to the public benefit, euthanasia, terrorism etc. Increasingly these types of issues can best be solved only after there is broad and overwhelming public support which goes beyond traditional left/right divides.

It could come down to a choice between Brexit or the splitting of the Conservatives..probably a bit dramatic.

In France it looks like the once great Gaulists and Socialists are a spent force and in the US Trump can't be considered a Republican in the sense that he was opposed by all traditional Republican Party forces. Belgium and Holland seem to have fragmented into narrow based interest group parties. Maybe the large old parties will break up because their traditional philosophies just don't answer current problems.

[newcastle]

More gloom for the Conservatives with the latest poll :

Labour have gained a five-point lead over the Conservatives following a disastrous general election night, according to the latest poll.

A Survation study puts Jeremy Corbyn's party on 45 per cent and the Tories on just 39 per cent.

The dramatic reversal in the Labour leader's fortunes comes after the most damaging 48 hours of Theresa May's career.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06 ... test-poll/

Of course, polls cannot be relied on.....as Theresa May found out.

It will bolster Corbyn's hopes for an early election - hopes which, alas, will not be fulfilled unless May cocks up her negotiations with DUP. I imagine the negotiations are being handled by safer hands

And to no great surprise, Michael Gove returns to the cabinet. We may yet see a re-run of the all-ticket fight with Boris when the Conservatives decide the time is right to give Theresa her marching orders.

Exciting times ahead!