The Cobra Effect

[newcastle]

There is growing concern that Egypt is no longer the cheap option for holidays - particularly winter holidays - and the constant hike in prices ( e.g. museum and site entry fees) could lead to a spiralling reduction in tourism. This law of “unintended consequences” is best illustrated by the recent attempt to raise substantially the levy on diving and snorkelling trips on the Red Sea.

The Egyptian ministry of environment had - it’s reconsidering- decided to request an additional levy for all Red Sea tourists snorkeling and/or diving from boat. Decisions that are not based on real study for the consequences can cause much more damage than expected.

The cobra effect In management is when a decision is implemented before making good study on the effect that can happen due to this result.

In the time of British colonial of India the British government was warried about the number of cobra snakes in town, The government offered money for every dead cobra. In the beginning this was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, however, people began to breed cobras for the income. When the government became aware of this problem, the reward program was scrapped, causing the cobra breeders to set the snakes free because they are now worth nothing, and as a result, the wild cobra population further increased

This is exactly what was likely to happenwith this additional levy for diving and snorkeling activities in the red sea. They wanted to collect money for the government and benefit from the easy generated income paid by every tourist doing activities on the Egyptian red sea territory.

With the increased cost to activities customers who chose to come to egypt, known as a resonably budget holiday will find more options in this price range from other holiday destinations and some will chose to go there. The effect could start to appear in 2021 season, with decreased number of activities as a result of high price.

Dive centres could start to reduce quality to try maintaining some profit and this will result in more damage. And by the time the government understand what is happening and try to find a way out of this, coral reefs not visited by touristic boat due to cost reduction strategies from dive operators will suffer from over fishing and other non friendly activities.

Similar consequences apply to Nile Cruises , guided tours etc.

[Who2]

I don't know anything about the Tourist Minister, but since our 1st revolution the Government
paying vast amounts of money to a UK PR company they have achieved very little
difference in the number of tourists visiting.

It seems that the minister Rania received the 2013 Distinguished Alumni Award from AUC..
Let's face it working with Egyptians is not easiest job in the World..
The Lady was an economist, which on the whole has to be better than an ex-General....

Ps: What do I care ? I hate tourists except for myself...qed.

[newcastle]

Whilst the tourist numbers have almost returned to pre-revolution numbers, I agree with Who2 that it has little- nothing really - to do with the efforts of the Egyptian tourism authorities, minister, or their PR campaigns.

The latter seemed, at times, a glorified begging campaign. “Come to Egypt....we’re desperate and need your money”!

Rather it’s the absence of any disaster or significant civil disturbance, the return of flight options and the currency devaluation......coupled with the short memories of tourists and their total disregard for any social shortcomings ( poverty, poor infra-structures and an authoritarian regime)

Egypt is rich in natural beauty, historical sites and is blessed with an accessible sunny and warm winter.

Only the incompetence of the relevant powers-that- be hold back its tourism.