Trouble In Paradise.

[Hafiz]

Trouble In Paradise.

I read this a week or so ago and thought it presented a stark and reasoned view of how things stand in the region written by a person with access to key decision makers.

Some people think things are getting bad in the region. I don’t think that, but the person writing a dark view is Joshka Fischer former successful Foreign Minister of Germany during the collapse of Communism and the unification of Germany, a Green, hugely popular and an all round sane person. He apparently knew the current Egyptian Foreign Minister and thought badly of him in terms of integrity - he was not the only one.

He can also write in a brief, sober, calm and rational way – unlike an erratic, narcissistic clown I can think of.

Basically be says Israel (and Saudi) may have to act if they don’t want Iran running things in the region.

He may or not be right but its rare for a successful diplomat to write such an article. He implies that war is likely – but states that Europe should try to broker a de-escalation. (that would require a unified policy and a skilled Minister with good relationships in the region – alas neither exist in this new, glorious, pygmy age)

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... er-2018-02

(Newcastle – Fischer too has a history ‘connected’ with terrorism, death and the PLO which he later renounced. On the other hand he was/is a bon vivant which would appeal to many - depending on his choice of food)

I tend to think that things will be OK which is both a strong and a weak view.A bit like Chamberlain.

Something which disturbs me is a recent story that Russia may get involved in the Yemeni mess. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent ... emen-.aspx

Its possible that its an unhinged comment or an opinion designed to produce an effect. There are lots of those. The broader context includes Putin’s mad speech the other day about his big personal missile assets to destroy the world.

Putin’s behaviors in the Middle East in the past 3 years have been ruthless but the US has chosen to ignore most of it. There will some a point when the US draws the line and Putin will back the Iranians following which things could get dirty. Egypt will try to play funnybuggers – which it usually does. Someone should tell them to stop.

Therefore with an aggressive Russia and Iran and an independent Israel the direction seems clear. Wonder what Egypt’s strategic response will be – lets hope its not their army – maybe peace talks in the shadow of the pyramids to give them a sense of illusory power? They would fail but in a country that never measures outcomes it would still be an 'historic' initiative and therefore a great political achievement.