Winter electricity black outs return to Egypt

[DJKeefy]

Power cuts have become frequent in Egypt even in winter when consumption is considerably lower than in the summer.

During the last 10 days, Egyptians have reported regular electricity cuts, the second wave of its kind this winter.

An electricity problem is occurring despite a dip in consumption to a maximum of 22,000 megawatts compared to 34,000 megawatts during the hottest months of the summer.

According to a source in the ministry of electricity that requested anonymity, the shortfall between production and consumption is due to a fuel shortage, specifically natural gas and Mazut.

"We are working with the petroleum minister to increase fuel supplies even through increasing imports,” the source told Ahram Online.

Mounir Fakhry Abdel-Nour, minister of industry and foreign trade said in a conference on Tuesday that the energy crisis is likely to last for at least two years because oil and gas resources do not cover consumption.

The government has proposed that the cement industry, an intensive energy user, shift to coal, but this suggestion was rejected by Laila Iskander, minister for environmental affairs, as well as a number of NGOs that started the "Egyptians Against Coal" campaign.

Last week, Petroleum Minister Sherif Ismail said that the government will allow companies to import gas using the government's network, which could help address energy shortages that limit production.

Power cuts have become more frequent since August 2008, but have been mostly limited to summer. The phenomena in winter began in December 2012.

Source: http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/92970.aspx

[Glyphdoctor]

Yes, they are rather frequent in Cairo now. We've had more in the last week or two than we ever have had, even in the height of summer.

[Brian Yare]

BG have declared "Force Majeure" in Egypt.

"Despite the good progress we have made in 2013 we face short term issues which are reflected in our revised 2014 guidance. This is very disappointing. We have elected to issue Force Majeure notices in Egypt reflecting the ongoing diversions of gas volumes to the domestic market. Year on year decline in Egypt and the US are the drivers of volume decline from 2013 to 2014, with the rest of the base portfolio broadly flat overall. The contribution from our key growth projects in Brazil and Australia, which remain on budget and schedule, is increasing, but the growing asset base and higher royalties, combined with the decline in production, are leading to higher unit operating costs in 2014. However, our long-term strategy remains unchanged, our capital expenditure level will decline and we continue to expect to be free cash flow positive in 2015."

As a share-holder in BG I am very concerned. I've already lost the cost of a return flight. :-(

[Who2]

BG ?……

[Bullet Magnet]

http://www.bg-group.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BG_Group

[Bullet Magnet]

You Might find this interesting Brian..

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-m- ... 40855.html

BG Group (LSE: BG.L - news) (LSE: BG) (NASDAQOTH: BRGYY.US) tried the patience of its shareholders again this week with a surprise profit warning that knocked 15% off the shares. After a similar incident in October 2012 — and several revisions of production forecasts in the meantime — the group is acquiring a reputation for unreliability.

That's unfortunate for a company that was a successful high-growth story, and which still has great long-term prospects. It highlights the risks inherent in the oil and gas sector — and what investors must do to protect themselves.

Egypt

The main problem that has hit BG's production levels this time is the political situation in Egypt. The government has diverted natural gas to the domestic market, so BG has been forced to declare 'force majeure' and renege on its obligations under export contracts.

Political risk is an occupational hazard for natural resource companies — the UK energy companies have recently found that you don't need to go overseas to suffer from it! The warning signs were there: Egypt makes up around one sixth of BG's production, and the political turmoil has been evident. BG had previously warned that production was being diverted, and debts outstanding from the government had grown an alarming amount — that's still a cause for concern.

But BG's shares might have suffered a less-worse fate if expectations had been guided down earlier, rather than waiting for force majeure to be declared. The same applies to the other reason for the profit warning: the softening of US gas prices, which has reduced the volumes it's economic for BG to produce........

cont..

[Brian Yare]

Thanks for the link. Maybe I should have watched BG more carefully after British Gas divided into BG and Centrica. I had not noticed its exposure in Egypt.

I'm still hoping that my interest in Centamin comes good. They should start paying a dividend next year and even with the later 50-50 profit-share with the Egyptian government should be very lucrative from then on. But the Egyptian government may be too greedy and kill the golden goose.

[LovelyLadyLux]

BG = By God? Is God and Centrica making decisions and in kahoots?

When the electricity goes off and it gets cold as in Brrrr cold what are people doing and using to stay warm? Generators? Layering up? Gas Heaters? Shivering?

[Brian Yare]

BG = By God? Is God and Centrica making decisions and in kahoots?

When the electricity goes off and it gets cold as in Brrrr cold what are people doing and using to stay warm? Generators? Layering up? Gas Heaters? Shivering?

BG was formed in 1997 as part of the denationalized "British Gas".

http://www.bg-group.com/25/about-us/our-history/

Wrap up warm, LLL

[LovelyLadyLux]

I remember a January in Helwan a few years back. It was so cold even WITH electricity!

[Brian Yare]

I was in Luxor for 3 weeks in December and January just past. The temperature in my room never deviated significantly from 18C, so I never used the heater or AC provided.

I am extremely comfortable at 18C - it is so easy to put on an extra layer if one is cold, and so difficult to take one off (in public) if one is too hot.

Outdoors I occasionally had to put on a pullover or 'Camel' scarf at night, but never needed anything more.

Then I came back to a flooded England. :---(

[HEPZIBAH]

Whilst I had a very different experience temperature wise to Brian Yare and yet was in Luxor at the same period.

I found my room extremely cold and would have welcomed some heating when I was sitting there in the late evening. The temperature of a room largely depends on how much sunlight it gets during the day. Whilst I was in no way blocked in, my room just did not get good direct sunlight so never got chance to warm up.
For the first time ever in Luxor, I had to have two blankets on my bed! Even in the UK I sleep with only a low tog rating duvet and my window open all winter. I was warm enough outside though, only resorting to my pashmina a few times and my cotton cardigan one day on the West Bank (again in doors most of the time!)

[Chocolate Eclair]

I inquired has to why we were having so many water cuts a few weeks ago, to be told there is a lot of upgrading being done, we suffered everyday and we still are. So maybe its the same with the Electricity, and of course the Winter months are the best time to work.

[Goddess]

Upgrading electricity??
That'll be a first.

If this is a warning for what summer will be like then they can take their ugrades pop them in their tea and drink it, because that's how much use it'll be.

And if I have no water again for most of summer I'm going to combust and power my own electricals purely from my own fury.

Signed,
Peeved of Alex.

[Chocolate Eclair]

Water a big problem on the West Bank too, nearly every day its off between 10pm and 4.30am, plus cuts during the day, normally morning when you are rising and need a shower, but anyway there has not been a day gone by since Christmas that the water has not been cut.

[Bullet Magnet]

You always have the Great Mother Nile as contingency. . .
Don that Luminescent Green mankini, and join the kids and the camels down on the Ramla Beach...

Show 'em some of that Great British resilience . . .

[Chocolate Eclair]

Sorry I don't have a green Mankini, just a shocking pink one, with a very small pouch....... But fits lovely!!

[Bullet Magnet]

Oh, the mental image that is now deeply scarred into my brain....

[carrie]

It was cold when you were here Hepzi, the temperature in the night here then fell to 7 degrees. And it is certainly colder on the west bank than it is on the East, warming up a bit now though, 9.30pm and it's 22, but still feels colder indoors. Roll on summer.

[Dusak]

Sorry I don't have a green Mankini, just a shocking pink one, with a very small pouch....... But fits lovely!!

He has to keep his spare fuse somewhere.