Most Egyptians oppose Muslim Brotherhood: poll

[DJKeefy]

Most Egyptians are opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, according to a recent poll.

The Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research Baseera conducted a survey of opinion regarding Egyptians’ assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood and the extent of acceptance for their continuation in the Egyptian political scene following the June 30th Revolution and ouster of former President Mohamed Morsi, and in the wake of the dispersals of the sit-ins at Raba’a el Adawiya and Nahda Squares and what followed in terms of large scale violence.

Also solicited was the extent of Egyptians’ acceptance of the Freedom and Justice party (FJP) — the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood — in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Results revealed that 63% of Egyptians do not approve of the FJP’s participation, while 26% do and 12% replied that they could not decide.

Regarding the extent of Egyptians’ satisfaction with the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule compared to expectations they had at the start of their tenure, 78% of respondents replied that the Brotherhood’s rule was worse than they had expected, while 3% felt it had been better than they expected, 12% that it had been as they expected (whether good or bad) and 7% replied that they couldn’t decide.

Regarding the wide-scale violence that came with, and then followed the dispersal of the Pro-Morsi Raba’a and Nahda sit-ins, the survey results indicated that 57% of Egyptians place all the blame for those events on the Muslim Brotherhood, while 29% replied that the Brotherhood was partially responsible, 5% that the Brotherhood is not responsible for any of the violence that occurred, and 6% that they did not who to assign responsibility to for those events.



Survey Methodology

This poll was conducted using both land and cellular lines, and a potential sample of 1395 citizens aged 18 or above. It covered all of the nation’s governorates, and all interviews were conducted on the 19-21 August 2013. The response rate was approximately 73% and the margin of error in the results measured less than 3%.

Source: http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/08/2 ... hood-poll/

[biosceptic]

With those figures the MB should recognise the risk they run if they push to hard. If they are declared illegal again then they will have little support.

then again - any survey based on phone traffic must favour the Urban / richer portion of the population. What portion of the population are phone equipped?

[DJKeefy]

then again - any survey based on phone traffic must favour the Urban / richer portion of the population. What portion of the population are phone equipped?

Mobile - I would say all of them

[Hafiz]

Commentators say that the Brotherhood's base is about 30%. Voting over the past year confirms this. Adding the Salafi vote has given them over 50% in the past.

The Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research (Baseera) is a funny old thing with a really bad track record in measuring public opinion.

In 4 or 5 polls in 2012 they had Morsi at 1.5% and later at 3.6% in the Presidential race. Later they had him at 5,3%. And later still at 12% and fifth in the presidential race. They never predicted that he would be other than a bit player.

In the case of this survey they are a bit coy in what questions they asked. The only hint on their website is that they asked: “Do you approve of the Muslim Brotherhoods continuation?”. Bit of a closed question likely to produce predictable answers.

If this was the only question they asked then its not clear how they got the following answers:

The Brotherhoods performance was worse than expected.
The Brotherhoods was responsible for violence
The Brotherhood should not be allowed to participate in the next elections

So it seems likely that they asked other questions which they don't want to share. What public opinion organization doesn’t publish the questions they have asked? What opinion polling organization asks closed questions.

http://baseera.com.eg/baseera/recentpolls_en.aspx

[biosceptic]

And if they don't ask the same questions in repeated surveys then there can be no comparison.