No clear solution for Egypt’s political deadlock

[DJKeefy]

As the Muslim Brotherhood remain defiant, refusing to recognise the new roadmap with negotiations reaching a deadlock, the coming phase of Egypt’s political development remains foggy.

Expressing that will not budge, on Friday supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi mobilised nationwide, repeating a scene with which the country has grown all too familiar.

The two main sit-ins continue to block the Rabaa Al-Adawiya crosspoint in Nasr City and Al-Nahda Square in Giza. Marches tour the city every other day, blocking off several main roads — signs of refusal on the side of protesters that things move on after Morsi’s ouster.

Nevertheless, the interim presidency and government insist nothing will block the new political roadmap.

On Thursday, the eve of Eid El-Fitr, the holiday following Ramadan, the presidency announced the criteria for choosing the 50-member committee that will examine amending the 2012 constitution.

The 2012 constitution, suspended as part of the Egyptian Armed Forces' roadmap for Egypt’s future, was a major bone of contention among protesters against Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood that hit the streets in unprecedented numbers 30 June.

In the speech Interim President Adly Mansour gave on the eve of Eid he insisted: “Some think they are able to stop history from moving ... or to challenge your will for a deserved promising future. This will never happen.”


Ultimatum for Brotherhood sit-in

Interim Prime Minister Hazem El-Beblawi announced at the end of Ramadan that the Brotherhood sit-ins would no longer be tolerated and would be dispersed.

El-Beblawi said the only reason the sit-ins had not been dispersed earlier was out of respect for the holy month of Ramadan.

Expectations are high that the sit-ins will be dispersed after Eid, which ends Saturday.

Security forces have already intensified their presence around the Rabaa Al-Adawiya sit-in, according to eyewitnesses. The sit-in's media centre told Ahram Online that increased security forces are seen in all surounding streets, including Yousef Abbas Street, El-Tayaran Street, Abbas Al-Aqad Street and Salah Salem Road.

Central Security Forces (CSF) trucks are also stationed close by. Army and police helicopters frequently hover over the area. Ahram Online reporters also confirmed that police checkpoints are stationed around the sit-in, searching many passing cars.


Negotiations fail

El-Beblawi's statements on ending the sit-in after Ramadan came following announcements that negotiations with the Muslim Brotherhood have failed.

Vice President Mohamed ElBaradei — who frequently reiterated his insistence on ending the current political impasse through a political solution — had repeatedly stated that if the Muslim Brotherhood refuses to cooperate and insists on escalation, violence may be an inevitable outcome.

The last attempt made by police end of July to disperse a pro-Morsi crowd triggered clashes that left around 100 killed.

Still, statements released by the National Alliance in Support of Legitimacy, an Islamist umbrella currently involved in the sit-ins, clearly stated the only acceptable political solution would be to reinstate Morsi and the 2012 constitution.

Now that the last day of Eid has approached with no change in stances, the April 6 Youth Movement founder, Ahmed Maher, released a statement asking the Brotherhood to end their sit-ins, saying they “further widen the gap between the group and the Egyptian people,” and blaming them for the current political stalemate.

"Everyone who tried to find solutions admitted that it's the Muslim Brotherhood who refuse all compromises and seek escalation, insisting on the one impossible condition, which is reinstating Morsi as if the revolution never happened," Maher stated.

The young activist added that this “stubbornness” and “refusal of reality” would result in further public hatred against the Brotherhood — an outcome that would not be in the Brotherhood's favour.


Possible scenarios

With uncertainty tainting the political scene, scenarios for expected developments vary. While the sit-in is expected to be dispersed any time, some say a deal is still in the pipeline.

If a deal is reached, its repercussions will differ according to how satisfactory it is for the differing political players. If no agreement proves possible and the sit-ins are dispersed, the situation is likely to escalate further.

The Muslim Brotherhood publicly insists that its starting point is Morsi's return to power. Privately, however, some pro-Morsi protesters say that the sit-ins are their last bargaining chip to press for the release of detained Brotherhood leaders and for guarantees that the Muslim Brotherhood and affiliated Islamist currents will be included in politics in the future.

A Brotherhood source who spoke on condition of anonymity told Al-Ahram’s Arabic website Friday that negotiations have not reached a anywhere, but have not necessarily failed either, adding that the main problem is the insistence of the armed forces not to release detained Brotherhood leaders.

The source explained that the ruling regime agreed to release Brotherhood members, unfreeze the organisation’s assets and involve the Islamist group in the new government, but that Brotherhood strongman Khairat El-Shater and ousted president Mohamed Morsi would be exceptions. El-Shater refused the offer.

Another source confirmed to Al-Ahram that a deal has already been reached. The deal would entail the Brotherhood accepting that Morsi will not be reinstated, nor the constitution, nor the dissolved Shura Council. In return, the current regime would gradually release detained Brotherhood leaders, unfreezing the group’s assets, leaving alone the NGO formed by the Brotherhood and making it the official legal body of the group, and leaving the Freedom and Justice Party intact and registered.

The Muslim Brotherhood in the deal refused to take part in the government for fear that it would not be welcomed from its base. The refusal was welcomed by the armed forces which feared that Brotherhood participation in government would be criticised by Morsi opponents.

In any case, the source added, both parties agreed to avoid further bloodshed. In case the sit-ins are dispersed using teargas and water, the Brotherhood vowed during negotiations that its members would be told not to use violence in response.

Political analyst and member of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Emad Gad, told Ahram Online that the state will have no choice but to disperse the sit-in. The Brotherhood, Gad says, refuse a political solution and "they do not care if it reaches another massacre."

According to Gad, the Brotherhood's aim is to prove that the ouster of Morsi was a "coup," and to push for guarantees that the group's leaders would be not be held legally accountable and that their assets would remain untouched.

"Several [Brotherhood] leaders face serious charges ... Not applying the law means there is no state," said Gad, insisting that some Brotherhood leaders cannot be released, which suggests a deal is not achievable.

Source: http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/78725.aspx