Rumours of our death are ill founded.

[shebs1964]

So agree sx

[Subversion]

Hang on we are talking about democracy not dictatorship aren't we,,,

Sx

Democracy = an ideology seldom reached fully, and often abused, but worth striving for. Usually takes a long time to acheive a workable level.

Dictatorship = what you get when you don't strive hard enough for democracy.
Usually happens very quickly, whether any form of democracy has been in existance or not.

So dictatorship wins because democracy fails - it doesn't make either system sound particularly fit for the purpose of human governance!

Back to my point about the 3rd way...

Ok so now I am taking myself round in circles...

Someone pass the wine

S x

[shebs1964]

Cheers sx, up the revolution

[HEPZIBAH]

Hang on we are talking about democracy not dictatorship aren't we,,,

Sx

Dictatorship = what you get when you don't strive hard enough for democracy.
Usually happens very quickly, whether any form of democracy has been in existance or not.

So dictatorship wins because democracy fails - it doesn't make either system sound particularly fit for the purpose of human governance!

S x

Dictatorship...my definition is perhaps not an abosolute but certainly a high possibility.

Of course, another option is complete anarchy - but that can happen in it's own way under Democracy or Dictatorship too!

Ideoloies, practicalities, realities....confusion!

[gd47]

Problem is, most Egyptians seem to equate democracy with anarchy!
As Shebs quite rightly said, we've been working on democracy for a few hundred years in the UK and it's still not right!
Some nations need a "firm hand"...a prime example being the situation in Yugoslavia after Tito died.
Despite Mubarak's shortcomings, wealth (or at least slightly greater prosperity!) was beginning to trickle down to the general populace...witness the increase in the number of private cars and motorcycles on the streets. Just a general indication.
As for Churchill's view, "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time"!
Oh well, let's see what happens tomorrow...sorry, later today!
Just my tu'pence worth...pass the Stella!!

[Miriamkhalifa]

I think of the possibility of the demonstrations in Tahrir Sq waking up dear Ramesses II. Might he be a candidate?

[Hafiz]

For A4

I wasn't asking about your personal views on who should win but instead was interested in mis-information going on in Egypt about who was the 'winner'.

Found your views about your tour of Egypt interesting - a comparison in a year or 2 might be even more interesting - but likely sadder.

More Generally. Has anyone considered that the 'aid' Egypt desperately needs from the IMF will go to greedier hands and bigger mouths in Europe. Reminds me of Oliver Twist - 'more please sir' and the treatment he received from the well fed.

Maybe members of the forum could write to their local politicians asking for a generous approach to Egypt from their governments. Its a democratic right most of us have but rarely use.

Acton's rule about power and corruption seems true but another view is that 'power reveals, - it use tells you about the people wielding it and most dictators fritter it away or use it to protect their power. However Franco (a monster by any standards) did much for Spain's economy and maybe the Chinese after Mao may eventually be seen to have major positives. On the other hand well meaning democrats in the third world like Nehru did little for the masses.

Someone mentioned Churchill. This triggers an idea. Maybe drunks make good leaders, think of Churchill, Australia has had several good drunks, Ulysses S Grant and some others in the US, Boris in Russia, Vaclav Haval (a happy 'heavy drinker'), Koll of Germany looked like he may have enjoyed a drink or five, even George Bush II was a reformed drunk but not a good leader. Would this list be a basis for a generalization?

Does anyone think that the brother's government would be improved by a few drunks?

[Winged Isis]

Well, at least the odd tipple or two would certainly loosen up those tight minds! Cheers, my dears!

[Bearded Brian]

The MB / FJP may ban alcohol but I'm sure they will still have their own supplies.

[A-Four]

Thanks for your comments above Hafiz.

I suppose when you have a situation as we see with the election, rumour is bound to happen. The B.B.C., CNN etc, will pick up on anything, if facts are not available, even probably a rumour started off in a little cafe up in Orabi, then works it way down the road.

Your comment about the IMF i find interesting, so let me give you a little information about their last visit to Egypt, which was towards the end of Mubarak's time. The IMF was over the moon to the fact that he had come up with band new taxes, one being obviosly the property tax, there was to be a new business tax, and a couple of other new taxes, add to that the increase charges for use of the Suez Canal, it all made fantastic reading, so much so that he was able to screw a large amount of money out of them.

Mubarak quickly put some of this new money to good use by a very crafty way, which I reported on here at the time. He made available to ALL civil servents the possibility that they could obtain a very low interest loan, I think upto two years of their annual salary. The repayment was taken automatically from their monthly salary, the only difficult condition was that should they leave or be sacked from the civil service then the loan had to be paid back in full. What a wonderful way to keep the workers under strckt control, and music to the likes of the IMF, who do not ever give a fig about about the ordinary working man. I am not sure whether this offer was available to the police or the armed forces, perhaps Glyph would have helped us out with that info, but unfortunatly she was mauled on here earlier this year, and has not been seen since.

[Hafiz]

For A4 - the army hasn't been left out of the cash trough over the last year or so. From January of last year the middle and junior ranks were given a bonus of up to 500 le on each major demonstration day - whether they were involved or not. At a later date the salaries of reserve officers were doubled (Guardian 28 December 2011). Loyalty can be bought, you just need to work out the price.

Your story about loans for bureaucrats beggars belief. The Egyptian bureaucracy is bloated and loaded with cronies. Getting rid of people rather than incentives to keep them would help all Egyptians.

On a lighter note, and which might endear the IMF to you, have you thought that downsizing the bureaucracy is bound to be one of the first IMF demands. The loans will then have to be re-payed and this might provide the new government with a much needed cash flow. Who ever heard of a bureaucrat paying for their country's development. God moves in mysterious ways...

Happy to write about IMF but feel this might be not wanted. Nevertheless it is not abstract theorizing to say that the future of Egypt (and its short term stability) will be based on its ability to feed, house and educate itself and to provide hospitals and most importantly jobs. All these things will require huge capital investment and most of this will have to come from the IMF and their mates. Egypt at the moment is basically broke and its only financial virtue is a low sovereign debt ratio (but no one is prepared to loan it money at acceptable rates).

[A-Four]

On a lighter note, and which might endear the IMF to you, have you thought that downsizing the bureaucracy is bound to be one of the first IMF demands. The loans will then have to be re-payed and this might provide the new government with a much needed cash flow.

I know you said 'on a lighter note' here Hafiz, but have you ever known an Egyptian, or any one else for that matter, to be given a loan of that size, and then 12 months latter been able to pay it all back,.......as I said the old boy was a crafty sod, throughout his life.