All is Vanity.

Advice, information and discussion about Egypt in general.

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Hafiz
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All is Vanity.

Post by Hafiz »

All is Vanity.

Its in the Old Testament and still true.

Here is a sketch of the new Presidential Palace on the North Coast near Alamein to join the Cairo and Alex Palaces – so many palaces. This will be in a new city protected from all contact with Egyptians whilst the Washington White House has daily tourist tours.

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Here is the building site a few years ago taken in violation of the treason laws – death.

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Here is the Alex Presidential Palace notice the similarities – Egyptian architecture Rule 101 - do it again Sam. It overlooks a stench of an enclosed harbor/dock/putrid pool.

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The graves of a small number of the allied dead (paid for and maintained by the West) in this area and who fought to keep Egypt free from Nazi invasion – the Egyptian Army didn’t bother to fight. Not much vanity here or in dozens of other places in Egypt marking the hundreds of thousands dead and wounded in WW1 and 2. Egypt never declared war on Germany, Turkey, Vichy France nor Italy – too much hard work. The US were led in North Africa in WW2 by a Jewish General – Mark Clark- Ezekkiels. A Jew protects Egypt from itself – tell the Egyptian street. We fought again in Iraq 1,2 and 3, Somalia, Chad and related and in Syria to keep the region safe and called off the British in ’56 to keep Egypt safe. Egypt collaborated with Qadaffi, Assad and Sadam Hussein – and took money.

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Here is a short article on the Egyptian debt, the way its been wasted on vanity projects, the continuing poor workforce and educational skills and the inability to produce objects and services that the world wants. Its an unduly dark view that says that hell is looming as the world economy enters a rocky stage.

It could be worse. Tourism is down 1/3rd in absolute dollar terms taking into account inflation on the 2010 peak. A few more bombs or plane crashes and tourism will disappear.

‘In 2008, the future for Egypt looked bright. In the coffee houses of Cairo, conversation revolved around the strength of the economy.

Since 2004, it had been improving year on year, and by 2008, average annual GDP growth had reached 7 percent. Egypt was officially one of the Middle East’s fastest-growing economies.

….In 2008 all seemed to be well in the Egyptian economy. But there were warning signs that are manifesting today. Crucially, the economy was skewed heavily in favour of tourism and oil revenues.

….The standard of living in Egypt today is worse than it was in 2008. The middle class is shrinking rapidly, and soon will be all but erased. According to a recent report on household income and expenditure, the proportion of people below the poverty line - living below $2.50 per day - rose from 27.8 percent in 2015 to about 30 percent in 2018.

….Now the public finances are saddled with the creation of a $45bn new administrative capital - the exact cost has conveniently been omitted from the government budget.

…..He has devalued the Egyptian pound to such an extent that the country would need to triple its exports simply to make the same amount of hard currency it did before. Needless to say this hasn’t happened.

…..and a full third of the budget is allotted to pay interest on…debt. (I think its more if you include the sovereign debt owed to Egyptian banks)

…..Today, the military’s slice of the Egyptian economy has risen inexorably. Transparency International has suggested the figure could be as high as 60 percent. Entrepreneurialism is non-existent. Competition and a free market have been suffocated by a mafioso system of patronage.’ https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/e ... ns-reverse

The author is a former Morsi Investment Minister – he should be in jail or run down in the Putin style – a Range Rover doing the hit and run on a bridge within view of the presidential palace. He has a vested interest but his language is not immoderate and he relies on facts.

There are worse articles in high status western media – some saying Egypt will become a failed state. Its being talked about by some of the smartest people in the world as a possibility – not made better by a bad Egyptian government.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/worl ... the-crisis At the moment its 36th worst in the world – and deteriorating in terms of falling apart. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ates_Index

Its 5th riskiest in the world for defaulting on its sovereign debt which explains why world markets have closed in the past 6 months and no one, not even the Saudi’s, will loan them money. https://madamasr.com/en/2015/08/17/news ... f-america/

Tunisia clicks along with no oil or gas, surrounded by instability, little debt and an attempt at a liberal democracy. They don’t have the burden of a greedy and incompetent Army.

The benighted Sudanese have had a military war criminal dictatorship for 30 years – it failed and they are clear that they don’t now want a Sisi. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/we-d ... terference but expect Egypt to ‘fool around’ to get a government it wants. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... ht-control and https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/hu ... um/1464257 and https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... -sisi.html

Compared with others it faces few problems and is far from the poorest place in the world, is not at war, is not on the wrong side of political/military divisions and isn’t subject to mass deathly disease or awful natural disasters. Unlike India it doesn’t have deep regional and religious divisions. Unlike Indonesia its not poor, 16,000 islands and mass natural disasters. Unlike dirt poor and war ravaged Mozambique it doesn’t have 60% of its people HIV positive. Jordan has 3 million refugees and is surrounded by terror and deals with these well. Egypt has insurgency but that is more about the dreadful .8 million man army and 1 million man police force poor performance and should have been dealt with years ago by competent people. At the moment Israel seems to be running the Sinai situation https://www.timesofisrael.com/egyptian- ... adists/and its intelligence has infiltrated Hamas/ISIS because they have an intelligence. http://jcpa.org/israeli-intelligence-in ... the-sinai/

Here is the West Point position;

‘in 2013 the Egyptian government launched its largest ongoing military operation in the Sinai since the 1973 war with Israel, against the group. Rather than defeating or even weakening Wilayat Sinai, however, many of the tactics being employed by the Egyptian government risks ensuring that organizations like Wilayat Sinai and more moderate militant groups are able to continue to expand their operations within Egypt.’ https://ctc.usma.edu/crossing-the-canal ... nsurgency/

The point is that a stupid army and Junta have made things worse not better.

Here is a future for Egypt – Jewish Tourism. Over 110,000 Jews visited Sinai over the holy period weekend – that’s more than penniless Brits wanting their bacon breakfasts or the boozed and obese Eastern Europeans and Russians. A yearly rate of 33 million – pro rata.. The future looks bright someone should tell the ratty, deluded, deranged, angry Egyptian street so they can wake up and take action to stay stuck in their poverty hole. https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-1100 ... -warnings/ Given their army skills an attack on some Israeli’s on the beach will certainly produce a better response than the entire Egyptian army – maybe ISIS’s last gasp – let’s hope. Those aged female Israeli officers are fiercer than Golda Meir and she destroyed Egypt with her smaller army – including women and perverts.

I wonder if the hotels are serving Kosher food? The great Israeli traditions of camping - no not that - and bush walking might get some tourists off the beach and out of the toilet. The superb standards of Israeli cooking would be welcome to all a la Michelin style but spare me the kosher wine. Even half the high standards of Israeli hygiene on the beaches, hotels, restaurants and bars would be a relief from stench and stomach upsets.


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Re: All is Vanity.

Post by newcastle »

Some interesting links there.

Egypt seems to be sleepwalking to economic collapse. The junta must be seeding the water supply with copious amounts of Valium......or maybe it’s just general lethargy on the part of the population that keeps them quiet.

Despite its dubious economic strategy, the government has controlled the situation quite well....eliminated or exiled anyone with contrary views and made it clear to the West that letting Egypt fail is not a course they should contemplate - if they know what’s good for them.
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Re: All is Vanity.

Post by carrie »

I'm all in favour of it, just sent an email off asking if I could go and stay for a week or two, looks big enough to fit me in.
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Re: All is Vanity.

Post by Hafiz »

'Dubious economic strategy' - really. A ledger-keeper, bookkeeper would scream otherwise from under his white visor.

Huge debt on non-moneymaking and non-job creating projects some of which blew their huge budgets and now can't meet their modest targets - the Canal expansion and the new farming fiascos. I'm waiting on some export results on their billions they say they have put into IT and for a first announcement, no not Nissan's 'we will think' - on a sensible investment in Egypt by a sensible company making a sensible product the world wants to buy. Its 8 years and I'm getting short of oxygen in holding my breath.

The big investment in the new capital on a new regional financial/banking/stock market center should be worth watching but only to determine whether its a complete waste or a near complete waste of time and money.
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