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PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:04 pm  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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Al-Sisi, Putin to Sign Contracts for Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant in a Bilateral Summit in Egypt


Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Cairo on Monday to attend the final signing ceremony of Egypt’s first Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) of Dabaa upon a formal invitation by Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

The construction of the 4,800 megawatts (MW) plant to be built in Dabaa in Marsa Matrouh, located on the northern side of the country west of Alexandria, and to be completed within a period of seven years, reported Reuters citing anonymous sources.

Marking the second official visit to Egypt, Putin to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and joint efforts to restore stability in the region and reach political solutions to the existing crises.

They are to discuss the resumption of Russian flights to Egypt, the US decision to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and various regional crises, according to the Spokesman of the Egyptian Presidency on 4 December.

In a previous phone call, the two sides also discussed ways to further strengthen their bilateral relations, especially in the military, commercial and transport fields and the construction of the nuclear plant at Gabaa.

Egypt and Russia signed the agreement in 2015 stating that Russia to build the nuclear power plant in Egypt extending a loan to cover the cost of construction.

“Russia will loan Egypt $US 25 billion to finance the building and operation of the nuclear power plant,” reported Egypt Independent. “Egypt will pay an interest rate of three percent annually. Installment payments will begin on October 15, 2029,” the report added.

The construction of the nuclear power plant is expected to be completed by the year 2022.

Energy consumption in Egypt has nearly tripled between the years 1980 and 2000. Industrial demand accounted for almost half of the nation’s total energy demand reaching 46.0 percent in 2001. The other half was used in transportation (25.7 percent), residential use (19.6 percent) and others (8.7 percent), according to a UN report.

“With a decline in oil production from maturing fields, Egypt is trying to cope with a surging demand for energy. The Government is trying to discourage domestic consumption of petroleum,” the report added.

The government has launched numerous campaigns to encourage the reduction of energy use.

One of them is a campaign by the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy; they have previously launched an advertisement as part of a national campaign urging people to reduce their daily consumption of electricity. The campaign comes as a response to the continuous blackouts that used to happen across Egypt in 2013 and 2014.

While such campaign pointing fingers at the average citizen for wasting energy, there has been more initiative to focus the effort on generating energy from natural resources.

For example, a total of 20 windpumps have been locally manufactured in Egypt with the aim of “introducing water-pumping windmills for meeting water supply needs for farmers for irrigation and drinking water”, stated the UN report.

Also, as Egypt possesses an abundance of land, sunny weather, and high wind speeds, making it a prime location for renewable energy sources, solar power is indeed a promising alternative source of energy in Egypt as it receives between 9 and 11 hours of sunlight per day.

With the approval of three new solar power plants under a $US 500 million financing package by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), investments in Egypt’s solar energy sector hit record levels in 2017, Egyptian Streets previously reported.

Natural gas becomes the major energy source in Egypt. Its production represents 57 percent of the total production. Petroleum comes second with a total of 39 percent, hydropower 3 percent and finally renewables 0.5 percent, according to UN states.

With a population that reached 104.2 million, according to the latest census data by Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) including 94.98 million living in Egypt, energy sources are not only a priority but a basic need.

https://egyptianstreets.com/2017/12/11/ ... -in-egypt/

Applications from under-employed dentists and tour guides are invited for a crash course in nuclear physics as the country is rather short on expertise in this area.

The existing nuclear power generator, which supplies Egypt with 11-12 hrs of power 365 days a year, is considered inadequate for Egypt's current or future needs.

Fortunately, with 950,000 sq km of desert, dumping of nuclear waste should prove easy and it's not thought that the services of Cairo's zabaleen will be required.

Contingency plans are being drawn up for the evacuation of the resorts in the Marsa Matrouh area in the event of an "accident". Pooh-pooing such a possibility, the Minister said that, in any case, the resulting sterilisation of large numbers of Egyptians would help curtail the rising population problem. He also drew attention to Egypt's sterling record in the field of building construction, health & safety matters etc,

The announcement has been greeted with enthusiasm on Egyptian social media with many looking forward to Egypt joining the nuclear weaponised club and developing its own arsenal of weapons to deter the Ethiopians from filching their Nile water.

As for the $25 billion cost....a mere bagatelle said the minister, who, at 80, is unlikely to be around when repayments of the cost commence in 2029. In any case, he added, on current projections, Egypt will by then be in the top 5 of world economies.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:00 pm  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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''Applications from under-employed dentists and tour guides are invited for a crash course in nuclear physics as the country is rather short on expertise in this area.''

Pull the other one. Coming soon to a newspaper near you, Chernobyl 11.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:01 am  |  Posted from: Australia
  

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The plant has a long and fractured history which tells you a few things about planning and management. It will cost a huge amount, the power production will be very expensive and there are questions about whether this is a high priority based on the needs of Egyptians. It continues a long story about avoiding the hard slog of governing and opting for new and shiny, and always very expensive, things. It’s a story going back to the 1860’s.

The plant is close to lots of things. The La Vista Bay Beach Resort is a few kilometres away, there is a City Stars shopping complex very close, Telal El Alamein Beach Resort is walking distance, and because the plant is close to the coast any enemies with a submarine can lurk quietly, listen in and hit it with a cruise missile when they want. There are some locals who have done that before.

In case anyone thought affected Egyptian tourist developers and real estate types were intelligent this is what they say about the big tourist potential of having a nuclear plant near your beach resort:

“Egypt’s real estate developers are seeing great potential in the El-Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant project, believing it to have a lot of economic benefits for the country, as well as, encourage the establishment of residential projects in the El-Dabaa city.”
And:“Many developers look at the new nuclear project positively,” real estate consultant Mohamed Tharwat says.
“They are only seeing the positive side of the nuclear project, saying that it will give a push to investments in the North Coast rather than highlighting that there are safety hazards in this area,” Tharwat tells Invest-Gate. http://invest-gate.me/features/safety-c ... -vicinity/

The word cretin might be an inadequate description of their judgement – but Crete is not far away to the North of el Dabba.

The prevailing winds across the Libyan Desert should mean that if there are any ‘problems’ they will end up in Alex.

As is often the case the locals hate it and have been ripped off. In 2012 a mob of local farmers who had not been compensated for land taken from them broke into the reactor and stole some nuclear “material”. Where the material ended up was left to the police to find out and they never found out. The picture painted for Cairenes is different because the government of Egypt says that the locals ‘voluntarily gave up their land” https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... ation.html

It will cost $US30 billion – most of it debt owed to the Russian state - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egyp ... SKCN0YA1G5 and will produce 4,800MW of electricity. The builder, operator and supplier of Uranium with be the Russian State owned Rosatom that has many achievements none of which include integrity or technical competence. A South African court recently cancelled a $US76 billion contract with Rosatom because of corruption. http://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/ ... -customers

Rosatom staff are frequently convicted in western courts for corruption so maybe they will feel not uncomfortable in Egypt. More worryingly the corruption seems connected with supplying substandard and unsafe equipment for reactors. http://www.dianuke.org/is-koodankulam-u ... equipment/. In the last few days the Indians have got worried that Rosatom has sold them a dangerous dud. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 954207.cms

Rosatom also has a track record in cost overruns and it got this contract on a ‘non-competitive’ basis and its nuclear fuel will be supplied on the same terms.

It is possible that in addition to any military objectives the plant will produce electricity for desalination. This is odd because the nearest city is about 200k’s away and there is not much land in the immediate area useful for farming – but what do I know. Nuclear powered desalinated was first proposed for this particular site 42 years ago – so its taken a while. Sure the country has a water problem but modest investments in improving agricultural irrigation and reprocessing Cairo's used water might be the way to go because desalinationn is many times more expensive. It may be that the new 1500kw electricity powerline from the nuclear plant has been built – which seems a bit premature.

The project has a chequered history. Westinghouse built it in the early 80’s but it was closed following Chernobyl which is odd because Chernobyl was about defective Russian technology/management which had little impact on Westinghouse. Negotiations with the Russians have been going for 13 years but these were broken off and the US firm Bechtel, which has little experience in nuclear, got a contract in 2008. In 2009 the contract was cancelled again and given to Worley Parsons an smallish Australian mining/construction business which had about the same level of competence in this area. Australia’s experience in the nuclear industry is close to zero. The contract at that stage was $US160 million for 1200MW which makes it a small fraction of now $US30 billion for 4800MW. In early 2010 the contract with the Australian firm was quadrupled in size to the current proposed size and cost ballooned. Special legislation was passed but the Revolution intervened and nothing happened.

After the current government came to power the Russians appeared. Worley Parsons was still there this time not as the builder but the consultant advising the government on its contract with Russia. The negotiations were all over the place and the final contract was about twice the size of the initial intentions. There was no competitive tender.

Its not the best deal in the world because the capital costs of nuclear are about 4 times higher than the capital costs for an equivalent amount of solar. The power produced from nuclear is about three times more expensive than the price of the wind power contracts recently granted in Egypt. http://www.futurenrgcorp.com/insights.

Negotiations with the Government of China and Korea to build even larger Nuclear power stations have been going for a few years so there may be more to come..

The debt on the project(s) will be huge and its repayment cripple the trade balance and the currency – unless Egypt can find something to export. 80% of the capital inputs and all of the Uranium will be imported from Russia – so that will make the trade, currency, foreign reserves position worse. About 850 jobs will be created but how many of these will be Russian and how many Egyptian is not clear.

How the risks will be controlled is a bit of a worry because Egypt has refused since 1968 to ratify the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which means it can legally proliferate and deal with proliferators. Whether the UN agency will have a right to inspect it is not clear.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/informatio ... egypt.aspx

You wonder about how the whole system is managed. I know brown outs can be common in Egypt but why this is the case is a mystery because existing installed capacity greatly exceeds maximum load so its probable that ‘problems’ in supply are due to the retailer, infrastructure and maintenance – rather than lack of generating capacity. Given the government controls infrastructure etc you wonder why that can’t be fixed rather than spending all this new money on new toys.
https://goo.gl/DhrNkv (Overview of Egypt’s NuclearPower Program pdf)

On the other hand the plant may be connected tp some announcements that Egypt will become an exporter of electricity. How this will be achieved without connection to other grids or with the losses in current when you send it thousands of k’s are boring questions asked by unpatriotic persons obsessed with detail.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the exacting, cheap and slow task of getting existing things to work was abandoned for a new shiny, expensive thing – and all the heroic press releases that go with that.

Training of staff is underway – although its only started in the last few weeks. Most places would send their staff to be trained by experts in state-of-the-art facilities but Egypt will do itself – although who will be the trainers is unclear – lets hope its people with experience beyond Chernobyl. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... ation.html

Because the deal is with the Government of Russia don’t expect things to be smooth. The Turks had a half built plant by Rosatom that was stopped following a diplomatic dispute.

Its an odd time to make a big commitment to nuclear. Westinghouse, the biggest and safest builder of reactors is broke because demand is down and India and China are being cautious. India is facing violent protests from citizens in areas proposed for reactors – thankfully something Egypt will never allow. Unflushed toilets like Nigeria, South Africa and related places nevertheless plough ahead with nuclear. Places with money and sense aren’t being too enthusiastic about nuclear. Demand for Uranium is at a 10 year low.

An aside. India has spent decades researching an alternative nuclear power which is much safer than Uranium sources. It hasn’t produced much. https://www.nei.org/News-Media/News/New ... actor-fuel


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:50 am  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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Seems you share my cynicism about this latest "new shiny thing" project.

At least with Mubarak we knew what it was all about.....any project, however bizarre, was a rich source of goodies for him and his cronies.

Quite what the current current regime is up to is anyone's guess.

I might guess.....but self- preservation persuades me not to :st

ADDENDUM

According to Madamasr the deal is not as clinched as the government press would have you believe.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin left Cairo
after an hours-long visit, during which he met Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, without agreements made on any pending issues on Monday.

The presidents were not able to agree on the final deal for building the Dabaa nuclear power plant, the Russian Industrial Zone, or the resumption of Russian air travel to Egypt, despite the Egyptian presidency expressing enthusiasm that these issues were to be resolved, according to sources who spoke to Mada on Sunday."

https://www-madamasr-com.cdn.ampproject ... -visit/amp


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:32 pm  |  Posted from: Australia
  

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Thanks Newcastle.

One thing both of us (I think) are certain about - the press release In Egypt is always well in advance of the facts and the actual deal - sometimes by a decade. Nevertheless legions of them should be issued daily - if only because the masses believe them. A thousand a day seems to lack ambition.

As you guess/imply there maybe more to this project than first appears - hence my jokes about submarines and proliferators.

The whole notion of tying yourself into a huge fixed 40 year investment in nuclear is about as sensible as someone buying a 40 year old vintage car and thinking it will work - and not cost too much. It might be a charming aesthetic choice - but it makes no business sense - even if you buy it from a non-Russian. In any case what will it look like in 40 more years?

I fear the big looser in all of this will be the average or poor Egyptian - not for the first or last time.

You say 'at least with Mubarak'. This suggests things have changed - I suggest they haven't and that the same mentality, with different controllers, is still running the show - and probably, at the least, no better than the appalling past. I could be wrong and I hope I am. One thing that surprises me in the posts is the romantic recollections of Mubarak and the reports that Egyptians have similar sentiments. Maybe Alzheimer's is a contagious disease in some countries?


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:33 pm  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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Quote:
the romantic recollections of Mubarak and the reports that Egyptians have similar sentiments.


Possibly a reflection that successful crookery is regarded as a virtue by many Egyptians?

Or they're looking at the respective levels of repression, and cost of living, under the two regimes...and drawing their own conclusions :urm:


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:51 pm  |  Posted from: Netherlands
  

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God help everyone. Boom Boom!!!


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:39 pm  |  Posted from: Australia
  

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Newcastle - you may have missed my point about goodies. There are western and South African court cases that show that Rosatom always travels with one thing - a suitcase - and one that is not empty. They have taken it successfully to many other countries - maybe they have broken standard Stalin rules and not taken it to Egypt?

I assume the same internal rules apply in Egypt as previously applied - nothing much else has changed in the last thousand years. In any event all the Mubarak millionaires and many NDP politicians are back in power. Also I don't notice that under Morsi nor Sisi there was a purge of the bureaucracy. Therefore, if they are all still there, they are probably doing the same - but maybe the illusory PR is better.

We might also miss the obvious - successful crookery is also profitable for western collaborators - and even Australians. A lot ends up in western pockets and we should not be blind to this. The only loosers are average and poor Egyptians.


Last edited by Hafiz on Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:47 pm  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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Hafiz wrote:
Newcastle - you may have missed my point about goodies. There are western and South African court cases that show that Rosatom always travels with one thing - a suitcase - and one that is not empty. They have taken it successfully to many other countries - maybe they have broken standard Stalin rules and not taken it to Egypt?

I assume the same internal rules apply in Egypt as previously applied - nothing much else has changed in the last thousand years. In any event all the Mubarak millionaires and many NDP politicians are back in power. Also I don't notice that under Morsi nor Sisi there was a purge of the bureaucracy. Therefore, if they are all still there, they are probably doing the same - but maybe the illusory PR is better.


I didn't . Note my earlier comment "I might guess.....but self- preservation persuades me not to :st"

I'll take a chance and say "I agree" :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:02 am  |  Posted from: Netherlands
  

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This Power Station going to be built by 2022, does anyone believe that? I worked for many years on Sizewell B when it was being built, it was 4 years in the planning, and 6 years in the build before it was commissioned. So its either not a big one, or its another pipe dream. The cost is absolutely enormous. They are supposed to build a new one down South in the UK it was spoken about years ago and still they have not got past the planning stage, the means and effects stage and the final cost.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:59 am  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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I do not know much about these things, but surely it would be cheaper and safer to construct massive solar panel farms, with wind turbines. Japan has constructed such areas on many parts of its territory with more in the planning, taking into consideration what they experienced with the tsunami. They are having difficulties disposing safely the thousands of tonnes of contaminated materials which at the moment are just left in massive piles, covered with thick tarpaulins in the still radioactive areas.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:26 am  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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Dusak wrote:
I do not know much about these things, but surely it would be cheaper and safer to construct massive solar panel farms, with wind turbines. Japan has constructed such areas on many parts of its territory with more in the planning, taking into consideration what they experienced with the tsunami. They are having difficulties disposing safely the thousands of tonnes of contaminated materials which at the moment are just left in massive piles, covered with thick tarpaulins in the still radioactive areas.


Certainly would...and, to be fair, there are some mega-solar farms being built. We even have a small wind farm near Hurghada.

But maybe these projects don't come with big stuffed suitcases ;)


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D, - Much safer than Nuclear, more reliable and more environmentally suited. The only thing against them is the fact to generate the same as a power station you will need a massive amount of empty land to build. Depends on if the locals will sell some of the desert back to the Government :lol: :lol: Even though I worked on the installation of the Sizewell B Reactor, I am not a big fan of Nuclear energy. Solar power is very big in Cyprus and every home virtually has panels. I cannot wait to get back there for Christmas but enjoying not having to do the donkey work leading up to it.


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"to be built within 7 years". How do you get 2022?

I suggest that it will be built within 15 years, give or take, so 2032 is a more likely year. Having spent a number of years working at Sellafield I am aware of the difficulties in any nuclear project.

Having worked about 50 miles from Chernobyl a year after that place over-reacted, I'm also aware of the safety issues.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:56 pm  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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Brian Yare wrote:
"to be built within 7 years". How do you get 2022?

By being optimistic. 2022 is "within 7 years"

I suggest that it will be built within 15 years, give or take, so 2032 is a more likely year. Having spent a number of years working at Sellafield I am aware of the difficulties in any nuclear project.

Having worked about 50 miles from Chernobyl a year after that place over-reacted, I'm also aware of the safety issues.

Over-reaction can be a problem. :urm:


Blimey....two forum members ex-nuclear power station workers. Small world :ct


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:43 pm  |  Posted from: Egypt
  

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newcastle wrote:
Brian Yare wrote:
"to be built within 7 years". How do you get 2022?

By being optimistic. 2022 is "within 7 years"

I suggest that it will be built within 15 years, give or take, so 2032 is a more likely year. Having spent a number of years working at Sellafield I am aware of the difficulties in any nuclear project.

Having worked about 50 miles from Chernobyl a year after that place over-reacted, I'm also aware of the safety issues.

Over-reaction can be a problem. :urm:


Blimey....two forum members ex-nuclear power station workers. Small world :ct


And two that 'over react' at times. :lol:

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Yes you are right Brian, 2032 is most likely to be the date. My work was the Electrical installation in Sizewell B reactor, that alone took 3-4 years and goodness knows how much planning before hand. The working model took over 2 years to develop before the construction started.
Even though there are very stringent rules and regulations, I still would not like to trust them fully.
If Egypt bought the components in and made the solar panels up themselves a lot of money could be saved, of course the factory would have to be in Cairo for obvious reasons, they could then just transport them to the site for installation and send Cairo workers to install them. Don't ask why I say the factory should be in Cairo or the installers come from Cairo, there is an obvious reason, they would want to get the site up and running as fast as possible and not have to put up with 50% of the installers being off work every other day because either they had attended a party or their uncle had dies for the 5th time. That's not been cynical, that's talking from experience.


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