Mistral Carriers - a cold north wind.

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Hafiz
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Mistral Carriers - a cold north wind.

Post by Hafiz »

The new Mistral helicopter ‘carriers’ bought from France for about $US1 billion, and now on maneuvers, come with a few catches including no helicopters. They were available at short notice to Egypt because sanctions prevented France completing the sale to Russia.

The purchase process gives an insight into systematic Egyptian military decision-making at the strategic level, forward planning skills and how these meet Egypt’s threats and needs. Its also a good case study of Egyptian cost benefit decision making.

Like a lot of French military hardware there has been no foreign buyer for the Mistral so its difficult to know whether its any good. The Canadians and Australians had a look but didn’t buy even though its believed to be one sixth of the cost of the US equivalent (hard to believe but Australia did go on to buy a near identical product for about six or seven times the French price which must mean something). What is clear is the Mistral is not very good at protecting itself against unconventional and terrorist threats which you would think a concern for Egypt. Its starting to sound like a sitting duck that needs a flotilla to support and protect it.

In addition, the systems to run it were Russian and after France cancelled the contract with Russia these were removed before delivery to Egypt.

Bit hard to run the ship without operating systems. As the Russian Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Ivanov has said without the systems the Mistral is “just a tin can”. Why would you take delivery of a vulnerable tin can?

Nevertheless, Janes reports that as at 6 September, and after delivery, the contract to supply the systems had not yet been signed so how its moving around safely without being a risk to itself or its friends is anyone’s guess. http://www.janes.com/article/63493/egyp ... -agreement

No worry, Russia into the breach.

According to defense industry experts the new Mistrals will be kitted out some time in the future with Russian systems and Russian helicopters (quite aged) for which it was designed. This will cost well upwards of a further US1 billion.
://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/russia-to- ... hds-05749/

Nevertheless, as of four days ago and after months of negotiations with Russia Egypt has no contract to supply any helicopters to defend the Mistral tin cans. http://www.combataircraft.com/en/News/2 ... ral-Ships/

Whether the Russian systems have actually been reinstalled in the last month is doubtful – if so the Russian contractors are oddly silent on a big, desperately needed, high prestige export windfall of US dollars.

There is also silence on whether it will have the tanks for which it was designed. Lets hope the US Abrahams tanks, of which Egypt has thousands, will fit otherwise it might need to be new le Clerc French tanks. Acquiring them won’t be a supply problem because no one else has bought them in 30 years other than the UAE. A French shopping lesson – its always available if no one else wants it.

Therefore, without systems and protection, putting to sea near the Libyan border in the last week is quite a brave move which might explain why it’s a joint exercise with the ever reliable French whose last naval exploit was the successful scuttling of its own fleet. Lets hope no one gets sunk this time round. Makes sense at this stage to stay well away from Sinai, Israel, Turkey, Gaza, Syria, the Red Sea, Lebanon, Yemen, Somalia and the Gulf. However going near Libya carries its own risks. A refugee boat might need to be rescued. It would first have to be detected – lets hope that there is French radar.

The Russian helicopters might also be a bit vulnerable with the Israeli’s knowing all about them from their time working with Russia on their joint bid for a Turkish helicopter contract. Still Israeli competence might help when Egypt and Israel go on joint operations.

With all this Russian kit the chances the Mistrals will work will be interesting. Ask the Indians about Russian military technology. Twice bitten. One of their subs, after Russian repair, promptly sunk at its moorings and the Russian built aircraft carrier is a threat only to Indians. However, with a French built boat its almost guaranteed to not sink of its own volition.

The above article describes in detail the purpose and function of the Mistrals. They are for projecting force, 450-900 troops 40 tanks, specifically for amphibious landings of troops and tanks and its helicopters have scouting, not defense, as their main function. Great if you want to move a task force a few thousand kilometers and invade a hostile shore. The Mistrals publically stated (but not in Egypt) objectives and capacities are quite different to all the local stories that its purpose is to defend and protect Egypt’s economic zone – specifically its off shore oil and gas interests where its tanks probably won’t be much use. Arguably it would do the rig protection role poorly and be vulnerable in the process.

Might be that they have bought the wrong tool to protect the rigs. Wouldn’t be the first time that quick decisions with unclear objectives ended up with an expensive white elephant.

Some foreign and malign doomsayers even say that Egypt lacks the command and technical skills to effectively operate a ship several times the size of its next largest ship and light years more complex.

A Singapore military analyst writing in a respected technical journal is quite rude on this issue:

‘Firstly, Egypt simply lacks the experience and know-how in handling a vessel like the Mistral. Warships are highly intricate technological entities.

…This dearth of experience in operating a large and complex multi-purpose naval platform like the Mistral would arguably be exacerbated by a failing that plagues most Arab militaries: their personnel’s deficiency in terms of technical skills. In Arabs at War: Military Effectiveness, 1948-1991 (University of Nebraska Press, 2004) Kenneth M. Pollack maintains that Arab armed forces, including Egypt’s, often show an inability to fully exploit the capabilities of the military hardware they possess. The Middle East defense expert adds that this lack of technical skills and other military weaknesses of the Arabs are likely to persist.’

He makes the point that with similarly complex ships and of a similar type the more experienced Australian navy is taking 3 years to deploy them after delivery. Egypt is deploying them in months (after short training in France) albeit without computers, helicopters or tanks. Lets hope the ships hospital is working.

In a likely defamatory comment the analyst speculates:

‘was the Egyptian Mistral acquisition grounded in operational realities, or was it an vainglorious decision conditioned by the fact that large amphibious warfare ships are so du jour nowadays?’
http://cimsec.org/egypts-acquisition-mi ... ysis/19174

More likely that it was available at short notice, no-one wanted it, it was discounted and looked good and shiny on a quick inspection. Why not, rather than why. Classic impulse buy. Anyway the Saudi’s probably paid for it – one way or another – so who in Egypt cares? Everyone is happy and feelings are so important in military strategy and acquisitions.

There is a crazy story doing the chat rooms that Egypt will on-sell the Mistrals to Russia (denied by the Russians and widely ridiculed) thereby getting around the EU bans on sales to Russia. No crazier than the story so-far.

All the Russian media think that Egypt’s Mistral purchase is a great strategic move, which must be reassuring, but whose strategy are they talking about or is there any strategy at all?

The Mistrals and the other military related purchases are starting to look like a Parisian random shopping frenzy – and I haven’t even got to the new French made Egyptian VIP jets, the new German subs, a French military satellite, the new French frigates and Russian and French war planes. And the US military has recommenced delivery of new shiny things needed to replace those that are rusted or behind in servicing.

Even the UK got a very small contract to supply bullets. Apparently an early Boris achievement in his ‘make Britain great again’ trade agenda. Good on him – shows newly acquired attention to detail – maybe he will produce more useful outcomes sticking to the little things instead of the histrionic big picture. It has a specific effect on confidence and the markets when British trade and foreign affairs are in such inimitable hands.

This spree, and I’m just mentioning the military toys, is like a re-run of the 19th century Egyptian spending spree on high status pap and props with, just as then, little for the yawning needs of the average Egyptian – and we know how that ended – 50 years of foreclosure and receivership/administration. On the other hand, arguably, the 19th spree left Egypt with some assets which grew the economy. Whether new military toys and a new capital will grow the economy is far from certain.

Will it be better this time or will the latest debts be for just props? Maybe history repeats itself – first time as tragedy, second time as farce (a flinched quote). In either case the constant is the need for props to get the audience to believe in the story. They also need skilled actors and an engaging script - particularly for a French farce.

Further info: https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/ru ... hds-05749/


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Re: Mistral Carriers - a cold north wind.

Post by Horus »

Even the UK got a very small contract to supply bullets. Apparently an early Boris achievement in his ‘make Britain great again’ trade agenda. Good on him – shows newly acquired attention to detail – maybe he will produce more useful outcomes sticking to the little things instead of the histrionic big picture. It has a specific effect on confidence and the markets when British trade and foreign affairs are in such inimitable hands.
Nice to know that you have our interests at heart Hafiz, do you submit your long essays for our edification or just as a vehicle that allows you to slip in another dig at the UK? I personally am finding it tedious. :stp
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