Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Advice, information and discussion about Egypt in general.

Moderators: Horus, DJKeefy, 4u Network

User avatar
Hafiz
V.I.P
V.I.P
Posts: 1234
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 793 times
Been thanked: 725 times
Gender:
Australia

Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Hafiz » Thu May 05, 2016 2:49 pm

The world famous Max Planck Institute has modeled mid century effects on the Middle East and North Africa of a 2C (the now agreed Paris Target) rise in global temperatures and has found that this might mean much higher temperature changes for these regions compared with the rest of the world raising the question of large scale social,economic and political disruption and mass irregular migration to Europe.

The report talks of an increase of 500% in the number of extremely hot days for the region.

It’s a regional prediction in a science where precise regional predictions are both difficult and rare. On the other hand the reputation of the Institute for good science is beyond question but the involvement (how much?) of the Cyprus Institute and Greek researchers in the study does detract from its credibility in this difficult area of research so unless you hold Cypriot research in high regard it might pay to be a bit cautious.

Here are some quotes from its media package:

‘In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy,
… The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario. The temperature during summer in the already very hot Middle East and North Africa will increase more than two times faster compared to the average global warming.
…..
Even if Earth’s temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.
….
The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.’

The take home seems to be that negative effects for the region might be quite bad even if global targets are met.

I'm sure the government will get to it after finishing the new capital. The security services have a 'can do' ethos - maybe climate change is a job for them.



User avatar
Hafiz
V.I.P
V.I.P
Posts: 1234
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 793 times
Been thanked: 725 times
Gender:
Australia

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Hafiz » Thu May 05, 2016 3:40 pm


User avatar
BENNU
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 3149
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2009 6:31 pm
Has thanked: 957 times
Been thanked: 3408 times
Gender:
Egypt

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by BENNU » Thu May 05, 2016 3:57 pm

Hafiz wrote: I'm sure the government will get to it after finishing the new capital.
Yes, I am sure.

newcastle
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 6849
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 11:49 am
Has thanked: 1987 times
Been thanked: 5806 times
Egypt

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by newcastle » Thu May 05, 2016 4:20 pm

A big problem with reports on climate change is that they can get a bit hysterical...and this one's a classic......with the result that they are easy to demolish by the naysayers .

This is a pity as the kernel of truth is then binned with the rest as being alarmist.

What is indisputable is that the earth's climate is warming up.

It is equally indisputable that the impact of homo sapiens on the planet over the last 3 centuries is a major contributory factor to this warming (but not the only one).

I would also suggest that, as as species, we are far too dumb, too focused on the 'here and now', to even reduce, let alone eliminate, our part in the problem.

P.S. Speaking personally, I don't think it's mathematically possible for the number of extremely hot days in Hurghada to increase by 500%...unless we lengthen the year :lol:

User avatar
Major Thom
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 2628
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:45 am
Has thanked: 258 times
Been thanked: 529 times
Gender:
Cyprus

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Major Thom » Fri May 06, 2016 5:12 am

Well the weather in Luxor is certainly up and down, 43C then 35C, last year it was constant by mid April, so we are a month later this year. 5 years ago I was in a coffee shop with big coat, scarf, tee shirt under my shirt, that was the start of October, has not been like that for a few years. I am sure when the Dr gets his T.A.R.D.I.S going again we will all be transported to a better place. Maybe he should rename it EasyTard. The budget travel specialist.

User avatar
Dusak
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 5874
Joined: Sun May 11, 2008 2:29 pm
Location: LUXOR
Has thanked: 5895 times
Been thanked: 7328 times
Gender:
Thailand

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Dusak » Fri May 06, 2016 11:39 am

Well, I don't know how the rest of humanity will cope, but 'm British, so will weather the storm, or in this case, the heat.
Life is your's to do with as you wish- do not let other's try to control it for you. Count Dusak- 1345.

User avatar
Major Thom
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 2628
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:45 am
Has thanked: 258 times
Been thanked: 529 times
Gender:
Cyprus

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Major Thom » Fri May 06, 2016 5:15 pm

Stiff upper lip and all that "D" :lol:

User avatar
HEPZIBAH
Luxor4u God
Luxor4u God
Posts: 11254
Joined: Sat Mar 25, 2006 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 3003 times
Been thanked: 4194 times
Gender:
United Kingdom

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by HEPZIBAH » Fri May 06, 2016 5:31 pm

Dusak wrote:Well, I don't know how the rest of humanity will cope, but 'm British, so will weather the storm, or in this case, the heat.
You have reminded me of the childhood ditty:

Whether the weather be cold
Or whether the weather be hot
We'll weather the weather
Whatever the weather
Whether we like it or not.
Image Experience is not what happens to you;
it is what you do with what happens to you.
-Aldous Huxley

User avatar
Brian Yare
Royal V.I.P
Royal V.I.P
Posts: 2535
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2008 4:11 pm
Location: Worcester, UK
Has thanked: 1184 times
Been thanked: 1261 times
Gender:
United Kingdom

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Brian Yare » Sun May 08, 2016 6:25 pm

There was an old shepherd stood up on a hill
wondered whether the wether would weather the weather
or whether the weather the wether would kill.

User avatar
Hafiz
V.I.P
V.I.P
Posts: 1234
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 793 times
Been thanked: 725 times
Gender:
Australia

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Hafiz » Wed Jun 22, 2016 5:03 pm

Newcastle, I agree that some reports are hysterical. Don't think the Plank Institute's track record falls in this category. Greenpeace, WWF etc yes.

My point is that their study states that climate change in the Middle East may be more negative than for other regions. That is a different point from climate change is happening and climate change will be bad.

I don't think NASA are hysterics. They claim that the current drought in the Eastern Mediterranean is likely the worst in 900 years.

Some quotes:
"A new NASA study finds that the recent drought that began in 1998 in the eastern Mediterranean Levant region, which comprises Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Turkey, is likely the worst drought of the past nine centuries."

.."If we look at recent events and we start to see anomalies that are outside this range of natural variability, then we can say with some confidence that it looks like this particular event or this series of events had some kind of human caused climate change contribution,"

They use tree rings to reconstruct a weather history.
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/201 ... -900-years

LovelyLadyLux
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 3251
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 2:27 am
Has thanked: 985 times
Been thanked: 2255 times
Canada

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by LovelyLadyLux » Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:24 pm

Last summer we had the worst drought ever for this area. We were getting temperatures in the high 80ies and low 90ies in early spring and it stayed dry all summer. Wildfires started and the smoke ash covered the house and made breathing difficult. We'd never had this problem before so nobody was really prepared. Was awful.

Is climate changing? Seems to be changing here and I'd say that while we have the monetary ability to prepare we're not and we're going to suffer some pretty catastrophic results.

newcastle
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 6849
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 11:49 am
Has thanked: 1987 times
Been thanked: 5806 times
Egypt

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by newcastle » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:59 pm

So if those southern hordes head north it'll be a case of.......

out of the frying pan....into the fire :lol:

User avatar
Dusak
Egyptian Pharaoh
Egyptian Pharaoh
Posts: 5874
Joined: Sun May 11, 2008 2:29 pm
Location: LUXOR
Has thanked: 5895 times
Been thanked: 7328 times
Gender:
Thailand

Re: Catastrophic Climate Change in Middle East/Nth Africa

Post by Dusak » Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:33 am

We can all look on the bright side, according to the experts, our warmer winter months are having a positive affect on carbon emissions. But with the melting of the ice fields due also to the warmer climate, I don't think that it will be a benefit for that long. The world production of wellingtons has quadrupled in the last four years due to the increased rainfall and flooding. They don't sell them on our souq at the moment, but it will not be long before we see the Chinese made 'one size fits all' on sale.
Life is your's to do with as you wish- do not let other's try to control it for you. Count Dusak- 1345.

  • Similar Topics
    Replies
    Views
    Last post
  • Sisi opens biggest military base in Middle East and Africa
    by DJKeefy » Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:56 pm » in Know Egypt
    9 Replies
    225 Views
    Last post by Major Thom
    Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:54 pm
  • Trump and climate change
    by newcastle » Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:36 pm » in News and Sport
    14 Replies
    400 Views
    Last post by Zooropa
    Sat Jun 03, 2017 1:07 pm
  • Trees and Climate Change in Egypt
    by Hafiz » Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:03 am » in Know Egypt
    2 Replies
    130 Views
    Last post by Major Thom
    Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:18 pm
  • Egypt and the Middle East.
    by A-Four » Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:04 am » in Politics and Religion
    28 Replies
    2395 Views
    Last post by newcastle
    Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:14 am
  • Electronics banned on some US flights from Middle East
    by Bombay » Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:54 am » in Visiting Luxor
    104 Replies
    942 Views
    Last post by crewmeal
    Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:28 pm