EGP Devaluation imminent

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EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by newcastle » Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:20 pm

Brace for a devaluation of the Egyptian pound. The Egyptian pound could be allowed to fall to as low as 8.4 against the dollar within ‘weeks’ in the first of several devaluations as Egypt steps up battle against Foreign Exchange shortage.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/187267.aspx



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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by A-Four » Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:48 pm

The government was hoping to hold on until its annual budget, but at last it realises that all international investment has stopped. Yesterday G.M. Moters (Egypt) Ltd, who supply the country with 25% of its vehicles, stopped all production, simply because it can not import the parts.

It's difficult to suggest what the devaluation will be with official inflation at 10% again, to get the economy growing, it could fall to 15LE to the £.

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by carrie » Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:58 pm

I remember A Four and waited impatiently, for your forecast of the Egyptian pound being 15 to 1 British before Christmas.
Is the Egyptian pound tied to the American dollar :?:

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by newcastle » Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:13 pm

It's tied, Carrie, in the sense that the Bank of Egypt had been using its foreign reserves to artificially prop up the EGP.

It no longer has sufficient reserves to do so.

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by carrie » Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:40 pm

When I go to the ATM to get money from my UK account, I get the money in Egyptian pounds. The bank that I am getting the money from must be repaid by my bank, which is Nationwide, will the Egyptian bank be repaid in English pounds or Egyptian?
Or is it all electronic, does my living here and spending help with the foreign reserves?

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by newcastle » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:02 pm

Spending your UK source money in Egypt does, I suppose, help the Egyptian economy :lol:

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by Major Thom » Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:06 am

Myself and A4 spoke about this over 2 years ago and agreed that devaluation was on the cards and the reason we thought it was inevitable. So it looks like here it comes. A shame really but, like we said how else was investment going to come into Egypt, with the problems it has suffered in the past.

Oh! by the way the speed bumps are back with vengeance on the West Bank Super Highway, we had to stop our motorbike tree times the other day and push it over these mountains, some in groups of three, my motorbike is ridden in the parachute postion and is low slung, we dont have the same problems in Luxor, they are constructed in the proper manner, but still do the same job. Looks like we are going to have to wait for the Premier of India to visit for a break from these speed bumps, if you get my drift!! :lol:

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by A-Four » Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:23 am

Yes, MT and I discussed this way back then, had Egypt devalued then, they could have held the LE at 13.5 to the £, though In true fiscal sense today it can not. It's very difficult to work out a nations finances when it appears to operate outside international rules.

Over the past two years Egypt has spent approx $15 Billion on armament, I believe this money has come either as a gift or loan from Saudi Arabia, but was certainly paid 'under the carpet'. Saudi Arabia and the West knows that if the most populous nation in the Middle East, Egypt was to fall financially or to terrorists, then the whole Middle East could fall.

The final nail in the coffin was, as I wrote on here at the start of the week, £60 Billion has disappeared from Egypt since 2011, that is a massive worldwide shock, but to add insult, the government stopped all future media coverage while investigations took part,.....the final straw.

It truly is impossible to see what direction Egypt will take, it's people will suffer, as though they have not suffered enough already. On Saturday President Sisi will address parliament for the first time,......it could be very interesting what he has to say.

As I have written in the past, only a fool would have wished to be a M.P. in Egypt at this time.

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by newcastle » Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:56 am

As the Minister of Interior said yesterday of Egypt's security agencies : "They are renowned for integrity and transparency "

The Finance Minister needs to take a leaf out of his book and reassure the world regarding the country's finances. :wi

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by Who2 » Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:15 pm

I'm putting all my money into Gold.... :cool:
Oh! and Chrysanthemumsms...
"The Salvation of Mankind lies in making everything the responsibility of All"
Sophocles.

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by A-Four » Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:17 am

A-Four wrote:
It's difficult to suggest what the devaluation will be with official inflation at 10% again, to get the economy growing, it could fall to 15LE to the £.
When I wrote the above line, I expected that the Egyptian government would have got its act in order, implemented the necessary financial laws, then by allowing the LE to devalue to 15LE to the £, would have put the country on a sound footing for full foreign investment.

We now find that because of the constant dithering, the LE is being attacked with full force on the black market, where today it stands at 11.30LE to the $. If the LE is devalued again to say 15LE to the £ without any government commitment to it future, then the currency could easily go into free fall. Although this may be of advantage to tourism and ex-pat, this would have dire consequences for Egypt's future, and in more ways than one.

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by A-Four » Fri Apr 22, 2016 7:08 am

I notice today that the Central Bank Of Egypt are going around closing down quite a number of exchange offices. In the past I know of a number of people who used the black market exchange 'service' at a couple of 'outlets' in Luxor. In future, do be very careful, these such places are known, and certainly will be watched now.

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by Hafiz » Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:14 pm

Afour makes all the points you would need to make about the economic situation except that a low pound means that food imports (wheat) are more expensive either to individuals or to the public purse (empty).

The current government surely remembers that the 2011 demonstrations were for 'Bread, freedom and justice' and that the price of food is important to social stability (riots). Maybe Sisi can deliver on one of them.' The prospects are a collapsed pound and increased food costs.

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by A-Four » Sat Apr 23, 2016 12:43 pm

I always read and respect your written work on here Hafiz, you are more aware of the past and present 'climate' than probably anyone else on this forum, including myself.

Unfortunately you was not part of this forum before the revolution, had you been, it may have been beneficial to many who found themselves 'trapped' there. Yes, I have given careful and sometimes detailed information as to how Egypt is facing and dealing with its problems, post revolution, but, my dear sir, I am fully aware of the plight of its poor.

Up until the revolution most of the ex-pat in Luxor moaned about the small increases in prices, or the corruption of a then local official, most were oblivious that people less than five miles away had to hang around half a day out side the local bakery for one loaf of bread, and even that contained more rubbish than it did flour.

As an ex-pat, I left Egypt in January 2011, I travelled through the old country for the last time, often saying a final farewell to old friends who informed me of how serious Egypt's problems were. It was not until I got to Cairo, that I saw for myself, how serious things were. Two days before I left Egypt, I was sat in one of those 19200's Groppi's cafe, off Talaat Harb in Cairo. There I witnessed a demonstration/riot where I saw thousands of people protesting they had no bread. Next day's Al Ahram reported a couple of hundred,......I knew then, the end was near.

Now, in the past recent months the Egyptian administration promised local farmers it would pay the international price for wheat production, that has been cancelled. A huge shipments of wheat from France was returned, as being of poor quality, I suspect another reason.

Egypt seems to be going around the Middle East and elsewhere with a begging bowl, it is promising its people everything, but after five years now, I really am worried for my old friends, and the rest of Egypt's poor.

I wonder Hafiz, as an ex-pat yourself, how do you see Egypt's future ?

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Re: EGP Devaluation imminent

Post by Hafiz » Sun Apr 24, 2016 9:18 am

A-four I have no idea except that the only people who are saying it will be positive are government Ministers in their hyperbolic press releases. Given they are incapable of telling the truth I guess they should not be believed.

The black market is the best measure of the government's economic prospects and that is currently over 11 to the dollar. Maybe rounding up the currency dealers might bring it back a bit.

As Bill Clinton put it 'its the economy stupid' but fixing the economy will take longer to bear fruit than I think Sisi has. Maybe the army will need to find another general to be President.

My memory of Groppi's was of faded charm and dust but I was there one night when the Lake Nasser turbines went down and the staff promptly found candles and kero lamps and got on with business. A metaphor for how Egyptians have survived half a century of poor (or worse) governments.

On wheat see my post on how the domestic market was rorted by selling cheap imported wheat to the government at the inflated price for domestic production. Should be easy to find the culprits. The rejection of imported wheat for contaminants seems to happen occasionaly and always from countries where standards are high. Odd. Australia has been rejected but I am unaware of any other country that has rejected our wheat.

I'm flattered by your comments but my views are all third hand and based on English public sources and I don't have much faith that they will hold water when faced up to the complex experience of being on the ground in Egypt.

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