When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

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When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by jewel »

Having less babies is the only way for Africa to survive.
A very good article.
http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-fewe ... 14-11?IR=T


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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by jewel »

13104


London (AFP) - Fewer babies could mean an "economic miracle" for sub-Saharan Africa, with gains of $500 billion (400 billion euros) a year over three decades for the region, the UN Population Fund said Tuesday.

The State of World Population report said a total of 59 nations were poised for a "demographic dividend" when the working-age population outnumbers the rest due to declining fertility rates.

The United Nations agency said these nations -- almost all in Africa -- could follow the example of East Asian economies like South Korea whose rise since the 1970s was helped by demographics.

"Recent shifts in the age structure towards younger populations present an unprecedented opportunity to catapult developing economies forward.

"The 'economic miracle' experienced by East Asian economies could become a reality for many of today's poorer countries," the report said.

It said there was also evidence to suggest that the demographic dividends could make the transition to more democratic forms of government "more likely".

The report found that the share of the youth population peaked in around 2010 in the world's least developed countries and "has begun declining", meaning that the working-age population in those countries will more than double by 2050.

In Nigeria, the most populous nation in Africa, the report said the demographic wave could "treble per capita income in a generation" as long as it was accompanied by the right policies and investments.

"The right investments are education, particularly girls' education. Girls must go to school, they must stay in school," the fund's executive director Babatunde Osotimehin told AFP in an interview.

"We also believe that health services, particularly reproductive health services, must be made available so women can make choices over their lives," he said.

But the Nigerian, a trained doctor, warned that health systems in countries in west Africa affected by Ebola had been "overwhelmed" and said that this could have a knock-on effect for the care of pregnant women and children.

"You actually might end up with more fatalities from that than you would from Ebola," he said.



- 'Unmet need' for contraception -



The report said governments should be ready to take advantage of the demographic dividend as there was only a "one-time opportunity" for rapid economic growth offered by this windfall.

"Without a solid economic and policy framework to back it up, the demographic dividend may not be fully realised," it said.

The countries named in the report also include some nations from continents other than Africa like Afghanistan, Iraq, Papua New Guinea and Yemen.

The report said that all the countries were on a path of demographic transition that begins with a lowering of infant mortality rates, which in turn encourages parents to have fewer children and invest more in their education and healthcare.

It noted that women in developing countries "generally have more children than they desire" and there was "an unmet need for modern contraception".

"Today there are more than 220 million women who want family planning and are not getting it," Osotimehin said.

The report homed in on the development of East Asia -- defined as China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Singapore -- where average annual income per capita more than quadrupled between 1965 and 1995.

It quoted research by David Bloom, a professor at Harvard University's School of Public Health, showing that the "demographic dividend" accounted for up to one third of that rise in income.

"We reckon that if all of Africa does this and in a timely fashion it will add about $500 billion to the GDP of Africa per year. Its' huge. It's about a third of what (GDP) is now," Osotimehin said.

Global fertility rates internationally have been dropping since the 1950s, from an average of six children per woman to about 2.5 today.

While the trend could be an economic boon for the developing world, the report warned that it was becoming a problem for mature economies.

"This demographic reality, tied to the ongoing shift in the balance of world population from younger to older people, creates risks," the report said.

In developed economies "smaller cohorts of young people may be tasked with paying more per person for the pensions and healthcare costs of larger older populations".
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

The article is interesting but doesn't propose how this might be achieved.
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Who2 »

Forget Africa, most babies don't live very long here, you should concentrate on China now that they have rescinded the 1 baby law.
1.5 million new cars and drivers every month in China that should get you worrying, bet you feel like King Alfred trying to stop the tides bit late & a bit stupid..never say die !…. :cool:
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by jewel »

LLL it does say that in the main education and the empowerment of women
"The right investments are education, particularly girls' education. Girls must go to school, they must stay in school," the fund's executive director Babatunde Osotimehin told AFP in an interview.

"We also believe that health services, particularly reproductive health services, must be made available so women can make choices over their lives," he said.
It may well be too late to halt the rapid escalation of population towards 10billion but if you can allow people to realise the benefits it may help reduce the numbers.
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Dusak »

The girls would be quite happy to go to school if the likes of Boko Haram and other terrorist groups like them would stop burning down their schools, kidnapping them or burning them to death. That's not to take into account all the teachers that have been slaughtered just for teaching. To solve a problem there is usually an even bigger problem that needs addressing first.
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Bullet Magnet »

Africa was OK till the white man came. with his Demonocracy and capitalism.
Feeding the poor ? It's just a matter of logistics, which brings us back to capitalism, and the fact that many countries wont buy from third world countries but rather subsidise food production locally.

Problem is, we are all born travellers.. The rest I will leave for you good people to figure out.. :cool:
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Who2 »

Basic foods here in Blighty are actually cheaper than Egypt's Iv'e noticed, probably bulk buying and forcing the prices paid on the producers, funny old world when my flat is now worth half a million and the 1st 3 bed semi I bought was only £5k.
Oh! and today I bought a pint of some local trendy beer at £5.90 mind you it was good… :cool:
Ps: there are now 56 micro breweries in London.."alot of populus qui non sciunt"
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Dusak »

Bullet Magnet wrote:Africa was OK till the white man came. with his Demonocracy and capitalism.
Feeding the poor ? It's just a matter of logistics, which brings us back to capitalism, and the fact that many countries wont buy from third world countries but rather subsidise food production locally.

Problem is, we are all born travellers.. The rest I will leave for you good people to figure out.. :cool:
Same could be said about America and Australia. :up
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by newcastle »

Thank goodness for travellers or homo sapiens would still be mooching about on the plains of Africa and L4U wouldn't exist :cg
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by HEPZIBAH »

Post subject: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?


Probably around the time that men grow fertile wombs.

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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Bullet Magnet »

I always said that if Men had to give birth, the Human Race experiment would have died out in the first generation... :lol:

So, I blame the wimmin for the problem that Jewel seems to think we have.. :cg



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Pen and Teller did one of their exposé's on Bullsh*t, one of which was the world is overpopulated myth.

Thomas Robert Malthus was writing about overpopulation back in the 1700s. Two hundred years later, his predictions didn't come true but people still hold him up as a great social scientist.
Even worse is Paul R. Ehrlich, author of the Population Bomb. (Basically attempting to reinstate the above Malthusian theory) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb
He was predicting famine and death, end of the world times by ....... The mid 1990s.
He was so embarrassingly wrong that his book read today would seem like one of the works of Johnathan Swift. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Swift
Amazingly, ( but not to me ) Ehrlich is held as a genius by academia. :wi
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by carrie »

As long as people are so poor that they have to depend on their children to support them in old age they will continue to have a lot of children, after all you have to have quite a few to make sure you raise some to income earning age.
End poverty first.
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by jewel »

In the natural world of non-human animals, breeding is regulated by environment, climate and food supply amongst other things. Humans have circumvented this to allow people to live in the most ridiculous of places and well beyond the carrying capacity of many areas and even countries. Also, a lion living in Kenya for example doesn't expect a bailout of wildebeeste or zebra from South Africa when times are hard. We should learn from the natural world as animals seem to have a much better grip on reality than we do.


No hope or trust on the future. And things will just get worse.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/meghabahree ... not-a-lot/
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Bombay »

Might have less babies if the TV programmes were better. :D
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by jewel »

This is an interesting screen shot...you watch as the human population increases. Sobering.

http://www.worldometers.info/watch/world-population/
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Dusak »

HEPZIBAH wrote:Post subject: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?


Probably around the time that men grow fertile wombs.

:stp
As you have mentioned this, I watched a very funny news item on China this morning. The Chinese have set up pain experience centers for expectant fathers. They are hooked up to a machine that imitates the cramps and contractions that the woman experiences at the point of producing a natural birth so they can understand better what their wives have to go through. This machine can only offer about 60% of the actual pain and discomfort, but most of the fathers when hooked up were screaming to be unplugged at only 30%. One said that it felt like someone was tearing out his stomach by its roots. All said that they had a better understanding about what their wives suffer and would take a more active part when the time comes to ease her burden. :up
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by Zooropa »

A man cannot relate to the pain of childbirth its true, except to say its obviously not a pleasant experience.

However, I roll my eyes when the well worn comment of "if men had to give birth it wouldn't happen" is trotted out again.

Yes it would, because mother nature, had she chosen men to be the reproductive sex of the species would have instilled the same natural urges to want children that exist in most women into men instead.

Perhaps if this had of happened then it would be women rolling their eyes as men complained that if women had to give birth they wouldn't.

That comment implies that men wouldn't put up with the pain, which is rubbish.

You cant use an experiment of giving men pain to see how they stand it in any serious scientific sense.

They know they can call a halt to it at anytime and the human instinct in both men and women is to avoid pain.

When you are in childbirth you don't have that option and your mindset and resistance to the pain is significantly altered by it, one of the reasons helping I would imagine is the fact that the mother to be actually wants what is the cause of the pain, ie the child, the above experiment does not and cannot replicate that.

Men are not biologically responsible for the set up of reproducing (it was decided before our time and we didn't get a say in it) so stop banging on about how you have to do it all - we cant help that and we couldn't take over to give you a break even if we wanted to.

However, one thing that women could take over that only men ever did and even now still almost exclusively ever do is go to war in defence of family, home and country.

I cant relate to either as ive never done them but I would wager that the pain of childbirth and subsequent recovery time required is at best the same as getting your legs blown off from a land mine or a machine gun wound, or the mental and physical torture of spending years in wet and cold trenches getting shot at by hidden snipers or suffering for years in a prison camp on starvation rations and hard forced labour in Burma.

It is funny how you never did hear as often men saying "if women had to go to war" etc.

Just saying....
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by carrie »

I for one don't bang on about giving birth, the experience was painful but not unbearable and the end result was wonderful. The months leading up to the birth were worse walking round like a baby elephant not being able to sleep because the little buggers always wanted to play football in the middle of the night, indigestion, morning sickness that went on all day. Why did I have two of the little darlings?
Perhaps it would be a very good idea for women to go to war there certainly would be a lot less of them if they did.
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Re: When are we going to stop ignoring the proof?

Post by newcastle »

I'm reminded of the old joke about women saying the pain of childbirth is worse than a kick in the balls.

Then, after a year or so they say..."It would be nice to have another one"

Something you won't hear from the man on the receiving end of a kick to the balls.

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