98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitution

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98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitution

Post by DJKeefy » Thu Jan 16, 2014 12:44 pm

98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of draft constitution.

Below (picture) are the aggregated vote counts of 25 governorates out of 27.

Vote results in Cairo, the most populated Egyptian governorate, and North Sinai are yet to be announced.

The turnout of the other 25 governorates has already surpassed that of the 2012 constitutional referendum by around one million.

Turnout: 17,453,815

Yes: 16,821,944 (98%)

No: 336,675 (2%)

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Source: http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/91686.aspx


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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Brian Yare » Thu Jan 16, 2014 12:50 pm

So by far the largest No vote was in "New Valley". This slightly surprises me. But if the MB were boycotting the referendum other factors must be in play.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Remus » Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:55 pm

More interesting I think are the areas from Beni Suef down to Qena
where the turnout was lower than in 2012.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Who2 » Thu Jan 16, 2014 2:32 pm

Over 703 Thousand registered voters in Luxor ? really ? Quite a population rise since 2006…. :cool:
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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Remus » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:11 pm

Perhaps because so many didn't bother to register back
in 2006 rather than a population rise?

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Brian Yare » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:20 pm

Remus wrote:More interesting I think are the areas from Beni Suef down to Qena
where the turnout was lower than in 2012.
MB strongholds. If the MB boycotted the poll then the turnout would be lower.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Glyphdoctor » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:05 pm

Nowadays we don't have to register to vote. It's done via the national id. You only need to register if you are living abroad and want to vote there. Luxor also includes Armant and Esna now so the governorate it larger than it was when it was just a city.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Remus » Thu Jan 16, 2014 8:45 pm

But then they had to return to their birthplace or wherever
their ID card had been issued in order to vote. The big difference now
is that they don't. It'll be interesting to see the Greater Cairo turnout.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Stevepj » Thu Jan 16, 2014 9:06 pm

Who2 wrote:Over 703 Thousand registered voters in Luxor ? really ? Quite a population rise since 2006…. :cool:
Did they have a 105% turnout in Luxor? :o

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Glyphdoctor » Fri Jan 17, 2014 6:18 am

Birth place is irrelevant. It's where your id says your address is, which can be anywhere, birthplace or not, as long as you can prove it is your residence when applying for your id. The law since the 1950s has always allowed people to vote in referendums away from their residence, except in 2012 when that law was suspended.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Hafiz » Fri Jan 17, 2014 3:47 pm

Castro regularly got more than a 100% and never blushed once: and he was a military man also.

Other reports, BBC, are 90%.

What are these 'unofficial' reports referred to by al 'Haram'? Are they reports of unofficial counts or unofficial reports of official accounts?

What type of High Electoral Committee allows such results to be printed before they finally declare the poll. Where did al Haran get its unofficial information from?

The statement by the High Electoral Commission of a 43% turn out is starkly different to slightly earlier reports from the BBC of firstly 31% and later 30% based on conversations with informed sources. How there could be such difference between one source and another, and over 12 hours, is a mystery but no-one would doubt that the BBC reported from other than a good source which is more than could be said about local media.

If the final result is above 90% then it will be the only time in the past 3 years there has been a decisive vote on anything. All previous votes, whether boycotted by the liberals or, in this case by the brotherhood, have been very far from overwhelming. Even when the liberals boycotted and brotherhood voted there was never a big majority. When a voting pattern changes dramatically this is also a mystery made more mysterious if the turnout was dramatically higher as now alleged. I could understand a high yes vote drawn from the group of solid supporters but the bigger the turnout the less likely a majority of 98% because the more the turnout the more likely a no vote from a base which is less dyed in the wool army supporters. I could be wrong but such a vote on such a turnout flies in the face of all previous election results.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Glyphdoctor » Fri Jan 17, 2014 4:05 pm

Just some observations that might make the vote clearer, based on my own observations at my polling station and what I have heard from others who voted elsewhere and journalists who got around to a lot of polling stations:

1-Virtually no young people voted.
2-Virtually no salafis voted.
3-Obviously the MB did not vote either.

These are segments of the population that don't necessarily think like the people who voted.

There was nearly 24 hours a day on most TV stations for weeks before pushing people to vote yes and that a vote yes was a vote for Egypt, a vote for Sisi, a vote against terrorism. There was no No campaign at all. Even the MB were calling for a boycott so that is what one heard on pro-MB channels.

The numbers seem rather high yes, but considering the current circumstances, they would be high with or without forgery.

Also, point 1 above is very important. Considering that most of the population is young, that in the next 5-10 years there will probably be more new voters entering the system that think more like the people in their 20s than think like the older people, it's only a short matter of time before the youth become the overwhelming majority. And they will have grown up seeing what has gone on in the last 3 years and will think very differently than those who grew up before.

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Re: 98% of votes in 25 governorates in favour of constitutio

Post by Hafiz » Sat Jan 18, 2014 7:52 am

The demographics of the Middle East and North Africa are consistently given as trigger issues for change/revolution. The argument, as I'm sure you know, is that large numbers of young people, better educated than their parents, but facing near inevitable unemployment are a threat to stability. Quite a few international organizations have called it a social time bomb. None of this is new and regimes in the region have been told for more than a decade to do something about it or face disturbances. The current situation is that nearly nothing has been done and the Middle East and North Africa continue to have the highest youth unemployment in the world and getting worse.

Egypt could be the worst of the worst with young people being disproportionately unemployed at 80% of total unemployment. This is several times higher than for the next worst MENA country. I find this figure hard to believe because, if true, the house would already have been torched

Being a young graduate is a double liability with graduate unemployment several times higher than unskilled unemployment in countries such as Turkey (2 to 4 times higher) and also likely similar in Egypt.

http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stori ... ended.html

My memory was that photographs of the January 2011 demonstrations showed an overwhelming number of young, and frequently middle class (if their clothing was anything to go by) demonstrators. Where did they go or, more importantly, which party is out there trying to get them involved in politics as an alternative to alienation.

Its an aside but it shows how the employed ‘steal’ jobs from the unemployed. In Egypt the World Economic Forum claims that public sector salaries are up to 48% higher than for comparable salaries in the Egyptian private sector, Expanding the public sector is therefore a much more expensive way of creating jobs for young people. On the other hand Just bringing the public sector in line with the private sector would reduce the public sector wages bill by a staggering 50% and release resources for education and job creation in the private sector. The Egyptian public service is not only salary bloated but is size bloated at 70% of total non-agricultural employment in Egypt. Is there anyone other than farmers who does not work for the government? Double bloating of the public sector is a tried and true way used by dictator types to secure loyalty and gain control over the population but its not very good at generating wealth and all but guarantees difficulty for the private sector in attracting good staff to help grow the economy.

I know the argument that young people hold out for public sector employment and see it as high status. That attitude could be easily be fixed by large scale redundancies, the removal of tenure and new market based pay scales for new entrants.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_YouthE ... t_2012.pdf

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