Egypt is Booming.

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Hafiz
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Egypt is Booming.

Post by Hafiz » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:07 pm

Egypt is booming according to the Minister for Planning al-Saeed (why her and not the Finance Minister) who relies on the stats from the Central Bank of Egypt and CAPMAS (postal address guarded military compound Nasser City – beware the mine fields and sniper posts). She should be given a prize for saying this – the Belsen Vaudeville Prize. https://www.albawaba.com/business/egypt ... rs-1164928

Here is the chart – sorry Newcastle if this benign UK site is blocked for you in Egypt. It says she is wrong.

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GDP is down by a bit less that 1/3rd in absolute terms over 4 years and showing no recovery. In per capita terms it must be close to 40% and most would describe this at not terminal but rather fatal.

The Minister says there are tens of billions invested in Egypt but she is a person whose own CV is full of lies and exaggerations. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent ... ln-by.aspx Anyone who believed an Egyptian Minister would have to be delusional.

So tens of billions have been pumped in, cities no one needs have been built, $US25 billion has been spent on ‘toys for the boys’ that they can barely operate and definitely not maintain, 40-60,000 trouble makers rounded up, billions of Brotherhood school, medical and personal assets transferred to friends, $US20 billion on the Canal – producing nothing, the military now running the economy and manufacturing even syringes yet the economy is still pointing downwards.

Looks like the policies have failed – not for the first time for the IMF – ask Argentina – and a deal of the cas went missing – we know it did and we know who took it and that lying Presidential Media Spokesman, whom women like, according to Sisi, but don’t want to marry, Ahmed Ali, (US research assessed as a joke) was taped in the room when the truckloads of cash, tens of billions, were ‘diverted’ with coarse language bu Egyptian leaders about the cretinous Gulf 'donors'. .

What I like are the CAPMAS stats is that say its all good and unemployment is now about 9%. There is not a single economist in the world that would agree with them. You can’t halve or more unemployment if your economy is still crashing – least of all if you are imposing VAT and land taxes on ordinary people and cutting welfare.

With an international debt of $US100 billion and interest rates of 17% that’s twice the tourist gross payable in interest, no capital, a year. Domestic sovereign debt is hard to know but some think is nearly twice international. Using this rare figure its probably now $US200 billion with interest of between $US20-30 billion a year and the need, one day, to pay it back. https://www.middleeastobserver.org/2017 ... ounds-cbe/

Nothing wrong with debt if you can get it to work for you and its hard to see the macro figures show any growth and the anecdotes are that its being tossed to the wind. The payment of the international debt requires earnings in dollars but tourism is only slowly recovering (and Russian rubles don’t pay US debt) and the rest of the economy is exporting what it usually does – almost nothing.

Since Supreme Sisi came to power big slabs of the economy have done little – except those bits under western control – oil and gas – but construction has trebled as a percentage of GDP – to the benefit of some.

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Foreign direct investment is flat (although their might be cash inflows that look good and outflows not mentioned) until you take account of inflation where its arguable that direct investment is worse than 2008 or 09.

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Egypt wins a prize in this area which shows the brilliance of its government owned banks – but its only a silver medal. The silver medal is for the second lowest fixed gross capital formation in the world. If you want low skill jobs and lots of unemployment then that’s the way to go and the Junta is going there with low rent tourism and building lots of houses. Al Ahram’s finance pages – it doesn’t have any – should run a story on this. https://ieconomics.com/egypt-capital-flows Madagascar and Ghana are breathing down Egypt’s back on the UN data in this area with the axiom of leaving the future to someone else. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ne ... desc=false

On the liquid cash front, beloved of all suitcase totting Ministers and kleptocrats ABN-AMRO reckons that Egypt is in a small group of five countries in the world where money is looking to leave – particularly the stock exchange. May 2018 and things are now worse. https://insights.abnamro.nl/en/2018/05/ ... est-links/

I know Moody’s and others are sanguine about Egypt but they don’t have an office in the country and got 2008 wrong. In recent days the market for Egyptian debt (floated in Dublin – very odd) asked for more interest reversing the pattern of the last 10 months. Moody’s has a joint venture in Egypt with a local company called Meris, Its business is evaluating mainly property development floats, mainly the dirtiest like Palm Hills, its publications and activities since 2016 are zero, its chairman appears to be an engineer but that was found out through the back door because it is secret about its board and all its employees and customers. It says its listed on the stock exchange but I can’t find it. https://english.mubasher.info/countries ... ock-prices. Its website provides links to more information about the company but it’s a dead end after years – wonder why. There is nothing on its site to show they have ever done any business outside Egypt or ever done ratings of any project that involved an international company or repute. If Moody’s relies on this company for Egypt information they are fools – that they have a joint venture with them is beyond belief. https://merisratings.com/#page-1780. They are further evidence that Cairo lacks the corporate support companies to do proper business – go to the Gulf they are all there in drives.

Like a lot of so-called academics/professors in Egypt the Minister’s CV reads like a cocktail party circuit of scores of committees – all of which achieved nothing – big sounding titles, no publications and you wonder how much teaching she did. I think little or none.

Sitting on a UN committee of 30 achieves a lot – 5 star hotels, limos, nice people followed by an elegant press conference announcing the results in a language only the Roma would understand.

The following is long and boring but I post it to give you the details of one person of a pattern in many academics/politicians in Egypt. Little focus, much display, little individual outputs rather lots of committee work, no mention of achievements/change/improvement and no figures. Sounds and looks good for the fragile insecure.

Dr. Hala Helmy El Said has been the Dean of Faculty of Economics and Political Science of Cairo University from September 2011. Dr. Said has been the Chairperson of the Board of Directors of the Public Administration Research & Consultation Center at Cairo University since 2011. She served as a Non Executive Director of Arab African International Bank 9a very dirty bank) since March 31, 2014. She has been a Member of the Board of Trustees of the Anti Money Laundering Unit at the Central Bank of Egypt since October 2012 (I think her efforts failed); Director of the Egyptian Banking Institute since 2012 (some of the worst banks in the world and incapable of reform short of assisted dying); Director of the Egyptian National Post Authority since January 2012; Director of the Egyptian Association for Protecting Competition (the economy has no competition laws) since 2012; Member of the Board of Directors of the Center for the Study of Developing Countries at Cairo University since 2011; Member of the Board of Trustees of the National Management Institute (management in Egypt is amongst the worst in the world, has been for lifetimes and shows no signs of improvement) - Ministry of State for Administrative Development since 2005; and Member of the Board of Directors of the Center for Economic and Financial Research Studies at Cairo University since 2002 (no output). Dr. El Said served as a Member of the Middle East Council for Small Business and Entrepreneurship from 2009 to 2011; Director of the European Banking & Financial Services Training Association EBTN from 2006 to 2011; Head of the MENA CGAP Advisory Council of MENA Consultative Group to Assist the Poor of World Bank from 2004 to 2007; Member of the Consultative Group of the MENA Financial Regulators Training Initiative from 2003 to 2011; Member of The Economic Council of the Academy Of Research and Technological Development from 2001 to 2009; and Member of the Council of Community Affairs and Environmental Development, Cairo University from 2001 to 2009. She served as an Executive Director of Egyptian Banking Institute - Central Bank of Egypt from January 2003 to August 2011. She has authored several research papers and articles (not mentioned and can’t be found) covering financial sector, international finance, financial markets, privatization and economic reform. Dr. El Said has organized and participated in more than 80 conferences (only 80 and why would this be an achievement – unless there was little else worthwhile to claim), symposiums and workshops in the same fields in cooperation with many scientific and development institutions and organizations locally, regionally and globally. She has led the project of the first national census for SMEs access to finance (2009-2011). Dr. El Said holds Ph.D. with highest honors (no university in the west gives a PhD with honors – you either get it or you don’t – i know a chap who failed his Oxford PhD) in Economics in August 1989; M.Sc. with honors in Economics in October 1983; and B.A with honors in Economics in 1978 from Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University. (a dreadful university rated dreadful by international rating agencies).

She is a poorly educated creature with no experience of working with decent people but compliant with appalling Egyptian standards – she is an entirely image an creature who has no results to her CV but western donors think is a reformist - as if reform will achieve enything. The whole system is so rotten that absolute change is the only solution



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carrie
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Re: Egypt id Booming.

Post by carrie » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:25 pm

May I ask you Hafiz why this interest in Egypt? I must be honest I look at the length of your posts sometimes and think "oh no can't be doing with reading all that".

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Hafiz
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Re: Egypt is Booming.

Post by Hafiz » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:17 pm

Carrie - Sorry about the length. Sometimes the simple is more complex than anecdote appears. It it a complex society and trying to understand it requires more than anecdote.

Two points. First I feel strongly that ordinary Egyptians have done poorly in the last 70 years. Secondly, to guess your implied suggestion, I have no motive or agenda other then Egypt become a fair and just society. Difficult and complex that that might be.

Maybe my scratchy approach is based on a view that many are naive about how Egypt is organized.

Its possible that we both share common interests in what is wrong with Egypt but a different approach to explain it. In particular I have a hope that putting views forward large detail on this venue will have a larger effect - I maybe wrong,

In the particular case, as I said, it was bout the crazy interests of a 45 yo professor who had more interests than actual achievements. She did everything and achieved little or nothing. In this respect she exemplifies the Egyptian ruling class - more appearance than actual result. Her CV was just copied from what she had posted on a web-site - the extent of which made me laugh in a dark way. I think she is a 3rd rate character who, like such characters. tells nothing but lies to suit herself and the government - but not the people.

To put it another way - the Egyptian economy s seriously wrong to the disadvantage of ordinary and poor people.

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