Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

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Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Hafiz »

Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Egypt leads the world in climate change and even if it gets worse and too hot and the Nile dries up and there is no food Egypt’s wealth will mean everyone can live in air conditioned cities 24 hours a day. What farm field workers will do will be ‘worked out’.

Maybe not.

MIT, (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) dreadful imperialist Muslim haters and awful scientists, have done some regional estimates on heat which say the gulf and the Red Sea will be hot boxes by 2100. That means the reef will be dead, transit through the canal affected and life in the Russian brewery’s and distilleries very expensive with a quadrupling of air conditioning. Going outside might be a problem and the Red Sea uncomfortably hot.

In reports going back to 2015 they say the Gulf could become deadly. http://news.mit.edu/2015/study-persian- ... -heat-1026

Even one brave Egyptian bureaucrat says that its accelerating at a faster rate in Egypt than the Gulf and that rising sea levels are lifting the water table in the delta and its saline level. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/sear ... an-n899921

The Egyptian government is on top of it and that brilliant Army scientist who developed a machine which cured AIDS and HepC has a solution to this world problem to be announced after 2 weeks of work and at a Presidential press conference in 48 hours.

These regional studies of climate change impacts are a bit doubtful because the rate of change is still unclear and its specific impacts in particular areas far from certain. For example some Nobel Prize winners in this country are deeply pessimistic about the likely success of the Paris deal and frank on the need to plan now for a worst case scenario in excess of 2C globally and accelerating at certain points in ways we are unsure about. There is also new data on Methanol let off by land tillage which is 25 times more dangerous than CO2 but its very early days with this and scientists are sprinting to work it out.

The MIT view is not inconsistent with the Max Planck (MPI) assessment of the region which is considerably worse. In this area the MPI is probably world leader. https://www.mpg.de/10481936/climate-cha ... rth-africa and https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 016-1665-6

Here is the MIT regional map 2100 with the red hot boxes.
Image

The tourist beach areas of Thailand and the west coast of India look fine - except they have lots of Russian bears in residence.

From Egypt’s point of view MIT gets it always wrong – because they are headed by a Jew, Reif.

Its not relevant to the Middle East but a good, simple powerful graph of very warm nighttime’s on the left and daytimes on the right for the US since before 1920. Its interesting that nighttime’s in recent decades have a stronger contrast with the past.

Image

Evaporation in Lake Nasser will increase a lot, no government work on this, in the flood irrigation fields, sand storms will increase and substantial areas of the Delta will be flooded unless expensive and complex engineering is done. Beaches will reduce and even after engineering the delta will become more salty – it already is. Storms and sea winds might increase but its hard to know at this stage. What is certain is that evaporation of Nile water in that immense swamp in the south of Sudan, the Sud, will reduce flow unless someone can finish the often interrupted Jonglei Canal - but the Christian South Sudanese are no friends of Cairo.

The Economist speculates that high heat could increase social and political restlessness. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-a ... -miserable

As I understand it Egypt’s scientific research in this area, forward planning by academics and bureaucrats and the development of industry, living and food plans for the future are close to zero. It also seems clear that Egypt has no plan B if things get unexpectedly worse or the military options that might follow. I have never heard of or read about any invitation to world scientists or agronomists to visit Egypt on this although I have read of junk conferences in Egyptian 5 star hotels of 3rd rate farming specialists – all Egyptian. No proper consultants have been hired at any stage because this would admit the locals aren’t perfect.

A not uninteresting article written about Luxor archaeology describing anecdotes about climate change in Luxor and its impacts on the arch. sites. Do you think the Supreme Antiques care? https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and- ... -treasures

Off point but the article includes the following photograph, allegedly form late 2017, showing the great achievements of millions to make Luxor beautiful and archaeological. Note the dead and struggling palm trees, the great efforts to screen the shambolic buildings from the ‘beauty’ of the site and how all the digging/house destruction/money has exposed hundreds of beautiful ancient objects.

Image

The Sphinx Avenue is a great beauty, a tourist attraction and superbly designed and made. Farag’s tens of millions of western money have been well spent on it and worth every penny.

Predictably Egypt is not forthcoming on either its problems or solutions in this climate/energy area and last reported on its emissions in 2012 where an astounding 41% of the dangerous emissions came from one source owned by the government – electricity generation. Egypt had not submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (on climate change/emissions reduction) to the UN in 2015 but produced a brief and fatuous document a year later that was awful even by low Egyptian standards http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Publ ... NDC.pdfand has not announced national greenhouse gas mitigation targets. In a 2016 report to the UN they used 2005 figures on emissions so no one is doing anything.

The Egyptian government policy on climate change is about as hard to work out as responsibility. Whilst there is a ‘show off’ at international conferences its fatuous with no targets. Within Egypt there are many agency specific plans which are not integrated onto one and with dispersed responsibility, endless meetings and much infighting. As is usual there are left hand/right plan problems with a new law in 2015 granting select industries connected to the army and connected persons the right to use coal for energy whilst prohibiting it for others. Very oddly, and its hard to be certain, the government owned electricity system might actually be increasing the coal share of its energy mix even coal has to be imported. https://www.madamasr.com/en/2017/02/08/ ... te-change/

Controls on factory emissions seem scant and there are no initiatives for vehicles. Overwhelmingly it’s a strategy of big government initiatives controlled by government and a complete aversion to incentives to people of companies to adopt new power sources. One harbors the suspicion that specific handouts to specific people gives rise to ‘opportunities’, means everyone is screened and that individuals not feel they can go their own way with a subsidy based on just legal rights or, god save us, initiative.

There is nothing others have done to reduce demand or encourage industry to build solar plants and feed their surplus electricity into the system for profit. Its all like ‘Moscow central’ with individuals, communities and companies told to stay away and leave it to their masters. There is nothing to bring in low carbon E10 petrol in Egypt and I think burning of sugar cane fields is largely unregulated. Building design is hopeless both for apartments and faux Georgian houses in the gated suburbs. More efficient electrical equipment/appliances attracts no government support. Very new science says that farming techniques, soil tillage in particular, is a much bigger source of dangerous gasses, Methane, than previously thought but Egypt and its 10’s of thousands in the Ministry do nothing. Economist April 28.

Solar power installation in Egypt is powering ahead in a strange way hard to understand except that local solar companies are excluded but connected persons with no experience included. Major international companies that do this seem either excluded or not interested. At this stage Egypt produces no solar equipment but the giant Chinese GCL has been given the go-ahead, without competitive tender, to build a factory and, very oddly, ‘approved by the National Authority for Military Production’ and not approved by agencies concerned with electricity or climate. It smells. . https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gcl-group- ... rint-plans

Solar plans are primitive and based on static photovoltaic panels not on tracking systems to follow the sun, not on parabolic systems not on concentrated solar thermal systems, not on the French solar furnace system. Its Mini Minor technology and sure to be a waste of money. With the wind and solar farms the government has agreed long term contracts to buy their power at a set price. That set price is a state secret so its hard to know how the taxpayer/power user will fare and whether the deals with the investors are competitive – I suspect not.

On the energy side the government has a New and Renewable Energy Agency that’s only interested in big projects. Its Chair, Mohamed Mostafa El-Khayat, appears to have no experience or achievements worth mentioning because his official CV is brief and mentions almost nothing relevant to his new job. They are being swamped with UN and EU debt which might reflect that commercial banks won’t loan.

Brains might be short but money isn’t.

‘In October, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group (a corporation worthy of a full investigation), completed a $653 million debt package to finance building 13 solar power plants near Aswan.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also approved financing a total of 16 solar projects in Egypt at a total capacity of 750MW with $500 million under the same scheme.’ https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/37 ... -companies

Overall action is fragmented, data hopeless, science no good, no co-ordination, big difficult to manage projects over small, put all your eggs in one basket, lots of quick fix, new and probably expensive energy over simple energy saving and almost no urgency in facing a future that could be deadly let alone preparing any long term plans requiring careful and focused work. As ever management is given to friends or people who can be dominated and in both cases they have no relevant skills or experience.


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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Who2 »

Quote: Egypt leads the world in climate change and even if it gets worse and too hot and the Nile dries up and there is no food.

Absolute crap: Why do you think I'm here ? Water it will get hotter each year get used to it,
or die in Margate the choice is yours.
Oh! and don't forget to include the 'alternating, intermitting, shedding of time, tick-tock tick....
Nb: The Planets poles reversing, it happens!......
Ps: How's your drought 'guzunder getting on ?
Pss: That's Margate... in Queensland not the real Margate in Kent.
I have a mate in Victoria called Russell, he has loads of Camels..
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Brian Yare »

"Nb: The Planets poles reversing, it happens!......"

The HAB Theory or Velikovsky?
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Hafiz »

The drought in Australia is such a hot topic its impossible to have a sane conversation about it. With such things there are always opportunists trying to jump into the life boat and journalists too stupid to know the difference.

Emotion has infected the city dwelling middle classes and the political classes. Therefore the drought is 'working' superbly well - in getting a few hands into many pockets.

There is a paradox in this given 200 years of tough farming and only recent pick-pocketing. The paradox is that as a class farmers, most of whom vote for the wretched, right-wing, climate change denying National Party are the ones wanting help their father's, grandfathers and great grand fathers would never even have asked for because they always knew that every 10 years of so a 3-4 year drought would happen and to always prepare for it. We will see whether the cretin National party is now prepared to agree with Climate Change - their previous and ignorant leader wouldn't have a bar of it and was pushing for more coal mining/more coal powered electricity generation.

In the current circumstances stock prices are near record so downsizing or full stock sale in this market is very attractive for drought affected farms when, in an historical drought, the market would have been swamped and prices crash.

Frauds and attention seekers with no interest in the matter have got national attention in haranguing the former PM and demanding gifts - in one case a female wedding photographer from a green and wet area 500 miles out of the territory she did her display. Why the media didn't eviscerate her hypocrisy and ignorance of the material issues I don't know.

Of course its serious but generally speaking those in most trouble were always so and the most enterprising know that a drought will deliver a cheap purchase from an adjoining farmer you never really respected.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by John Landon »

While I agree with climate change, its only bloody natural, Humans have nothing to do with it, yet the great unwashed masses queue up to pay their green taxes.

Think about all the changes this world has gone through without humans. Did humans cause the last Ice age, did humans bring us out of the last Ice age ?
Did Humans cause the lush savannahs on the Sahara to turn to sand ?

The only thing I do agree with is Pollution. Stop polluting this planet ! Recycle your rubbish and think about what we make and what is really necessary.
Eventually we will figure it out. Another 1000 years and humans wont even be here... The Circle starts again...
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by carrie »

Yes there have been climate changes in the past, the difference now though is the time it is taking to change. Plants and animals generally had time to adapt and evolve this time much too quick.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by newcastle »

carrie wrote:Yes there have been climate changes in the past, the difference now though is the time it is taking to change. Plants and animals generally had time to adapt and evolve this time much too quick.
I see JL denies human involvement in the FACT that the climate is warming. 90% plus of the world's scientists disagree with him.

It is true that climates change - have changed - without human involvement. After all, there were only a few millions, at most, humans around at the last ice age compared with the 7 billion we now have. Nor were they producing carbon dioxide at the rate our modern industry (or our cows! ) do now. Nor did they decimate the forests that naturally absorb carbon dioxide.

Heaven save us, and our planet, from the idiotic ramblings of modern day Druids!

There might be a conversation to be had as to HOW we deal with the issue of carbon emissions. To deny it's a problem is plain stupid.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by John Landon »

Too hot a topic for me to get involved in, like religion and politics and so called science.
if this science was correct , where are all my green taxes going ?

Science changes as we learn, so does religion and politics, they ALL bend to the FACTS in the end.


I will leave you to it..


Stick with the facts you know Newcastle. You were correct in one sentence...

It is true that climates change - have changed - without human involvement.

C
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Yildez »

The UK had a sub tropical climate during the Roman occupation - wine was exported, and the remains of terraces for vines can still be seen in southern England. In the C14 and C15 the UK had a mini ice age; the Thames froze annually and a frost festival was held on the ice, as illustrated by numerous paintings of the time.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by newcastle »

John Landon wrote:

Stick with the facts you know Newcastle. You were correct in one sentence...

It is true that climates change - have changed - without human involvement.

C
As Carrie tried to explain to you, it's the speed of climate change which causes concern.

As to facts.......I doubt a Druid is too interested in them :lol:

That the climate may have been warmer in Roman times, or that the Thames froze over in Tudor times, is totally irrelevant to the question as to whether industrial activity in the recent centuries is contributing to an increase in global temperatures. The evidence for this is undeniable.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by John Landon »

Australia has been turning to dust for a very long time. My Kid brother moved out there and all he does is complain about the heat.
Back in the 1950's they blamed the Rabbits for eating the vegetation and stripping the grasslands.

Ripping up trees for farmland didn't help either. it all depends on which scientific study you read.


Seems the great Sahara was not always that way, and much evidence of human activity possibly causing its rapid desertification. Even a great flood washing countless billions of tons of sand into the area,
hence why archaeologists are only just realising how deeply buried those buildings on the Giza plateau really go. Seashells I wonder why ?
Again, much evidence is compelling at yet contradictory and its always the scientists of the time who claim to be right until another set of scientists contradict them with another theory.

Climate change will happen regardless of what we do, perhaps we should be looking at overexploitation of the resources and land and trying to fit in with nature rather than trying to make nature fit in with our great plan.. ?

Climate change is a bit of a nonsensical name, as climate is defined as the weather cycles, but clearly they do change, and I would imagine you need a lot more data over a greater measurement of time than the ones our scientists are relaying on.
and providing the knee jerking tax raising conclusions they are coming to.

They meteorologists struggle to provide an accurate daily weather forecast never mind a long term one.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by newcastle »

John Landon wrote:
Climate change is a bit of a nonsensical name, as climate is defined as the weather cycles, but clearly they do change, and I would imagine you need a lot more data over a greater measurement of time than the ones our scientists are relaying on.
and providing the knee jerking tax raising conclusions they are coming to.
:a17:

:a84:

I suspect you have no idea how scientists measure climate and atmospheric conditions going back thousands of years.

I'll leave you in your ignorance.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Hafiz »

A smart person looks at risks. At the moment if things progress the sea will rise and inundate huge habitat areas like a deal of Bangladesh and the Egypt delta. Millions, possibly tens of millions will be on the move. If hotter and drier (Specific impacts in specific areas not yet known) world food production will substantially reduce leading to - revolutions, mass migrations and wars to prevent refugees entering. With reduced food production food prices even in rich countries not affected by climate change will go wild placing pressure on welfare budgets and pressure on poor people to not revolt. The world economic system will partially collapse together with the banking system.

The above are the likely effects of a 2-2.5 C which is not entirely unlikely.

If not unlikely a big investment now (not being done) is prudent on the basis that you pay insurance for 50 years on your house but it never burns down and you know its very unlikely to burn down. Here what is likely is clear and the timelines are also.

At the end of the day posters are saying they know better than MIT and its 21 Nobel scientists. Please provide the evidence for your view.

PS. The best scientists don't like single examples or exceptions. This debate, from the scientists side is based on long term, slow. gradual, but accelerating trends. I often think that the monkey brain never found a worse matter to deal with - gradual, almost unnoticeable, complex, interdependent, huge scale requiring international co-operation etc whereas we deal better/react quickly to the Luftwaffe dropping a bomb on us in 1940 but ignored the slow but screamingly obvious build up of Hitler from 1933. We didn't see him coming because we didn't look.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by FarleyFlavors »

newcastle wrote:I suspect you have no idea how scientists measure climate and atmospheric conditions going back thousands of years.
I also suspect he's not quite up to speed with the concept of the scientific method.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by John Landon »

I know far more than I let on, yes I know how science looks to the past, but often I get disappointed by what I have been taught as things change.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersede ... c_theories

But I guess its all sussed out now in 2018, right ?

makes you wonder how many of the corrected theories will then be also proved wrong ?




The whole topic is indeed somewhat irrelevant, due to all the external factors and dependencies involved.

On a personal level, All is good in my world, all the worry in the world wont change a thing, so why worry ?
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Hafiz »

Its not irrelevant for some. Places like Egypt affected by the Nile flows (which may vary under climate change and vary in only one way - and not up) its already high temperatures and whether they will get so high as to make human occupation difficult and its reliance on food exports to feed its people (if international food prices explode one of two things will happen - Egypt will default/become insolvent or its people will riot and bring the government down). Very high temperatures will kill what is left of the coral reefs and make the beach tourism on which all bets are placed, difficult.

For Egypt its not irrelevant because they are already, unlike the UK, on the edge of survival in their climate/water/food situation.

Those who are complaisant about climate change in Egypt are in full agreement with the less than sane/competent Government of Egypt.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by FarleyFlavors »

John Landon wrote:makes you wonder how many of the corrected theories will then be also proved wrong ?
Given that the list of superseded theories you supplied contains the likes of "flat earth" and "hollow earth", I'm going to guess the answer is very close to zero.
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by A-Four »

FarleyFlavors wrote:
John Landon wrote:makes you wonder how many of the corrected theories will then be also proved wrong ?
Given that the list of superseded theories you supplied contains the likes of "flat earth" and "hollow earth", I'm going to guess the answer is very close to zero.
Oh hello Farley Flavours, In recent past I have found some of your posts quite interesting, but please do not spoil yourself by writing what I'm sure others will see as put downs. Believe me, we already have one resident clown on here. Let's all try to be nice, that might be difficult for some,.......but, let's try, ..........yes. :wi .
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by newcastle »

A-Four wrote:
FarleyFlavors wrote:
John Landon wrote:makes you wonder how many of the corrected theories will then be also proved wrong ?
Given that the list of superseded theories you supplied contains the likes of "flat earth" and "hollow earth", I'm going to guess the answer is very close to zero.
Oh hello Farley Flavours, In recent past I have found some of your posts quite interesting, but please do not spoil yourself by writing what I'm sure others will see as put downs. Believe me, we already have one resident clown on here. Let's all try to be nice, that might be difficult for some,.......but, let's try, ..........yes. :wi .
Keep taking the tablets A-Four :lol:

After all....you seem to fancy yourself as something of a medical expert. Any qualifications?
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Re: Hot Box – Getting Hotter and Deadly.

Post by Who2 »

Quote: "Believe me, we already have one resident clown on here...
"Who's that then ?.... 8)
"The Salvation of Mankind lies in making everything the responsibility of All"
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