Wonder what the future is?

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Major Thom
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Wonder what the future is?

Post by Major Thom » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:38 am

I don't know if anyone has been following the Turkish Lire recently, but in the North of Cyprus where it is used, the inflation has gone up to 12% in a very short time and prices are rocketing. This could lead to many things world wide, and especially for Countries that have been bailed out by the IMF using US Dollars. The interest rise in the US is rising and must mean that the interest from these loans must also be rising, creating an extra burden on those taking out IMF loans. I suppose the future is further price rises and in a lot of cases future recessions, which combined with Trumped up sanctions is eventually going to put pressure on World economies. I was reading in the local press that necessities in the North of Cyprus (Bread, Milk, Butter, etc) have risen 3 fold in a matter of weeks. Interesting future!



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Re: Wonder what the future is?

Post by carrie » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:26 am

Last year when I visited Turkey the exchange rate was 4 lira to the GB pound, this year it was 6.3 now 8. The ex pats there who have their money in stirling are doing very well as we are here. Yildez is even thinking of booking the Royal Suite at the Winter Palace for a week or two. :lol:
Yhe problems with the Turkish ecconomy are not due to Trump's interventions but have much more complicated and deep seated reasons.

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Re: Wonder what the future is?

Post by Major Thom » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:57 am

In that case Carrie Erdagon must be using the sanctions as an excuse for his own mishandling of the Turkish economy. Has you know the Northern part of Cyprus is virtually Tuk run and many people would travel from the South to buy bargains, that has almost stopped overnight. and the North and South economies are gradually merging into the same, but like elsewhere the people in the North are really starting to suffer with the price rises and wages that are low. I thought the wage in the South was low, but the North is almost half. The Government there are definitely blaming it on to Trump, so it must be a political war.

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Re: Wonder what the future is?

Post by Hafiz » Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:49 pm

Carrie. Agree. For example the country is debt soaked - a bit like another I can think of.

Apparently the US action is a lot more than about the imprisoned US missionary and might be connected with Turkey moving in a Russia direction and not following the NATO line on Syria.

Qatar has sent some cash - not a lot - which might stabilize things for a few hours. It seems that to control the situation the Central Bank needs to jack up the interest rate but this is something that E. has strong/half mad views on over a long time and a lot will depend on whether they stand up to him. In the recent legal amendments/constitutional amendments E now has the power to fire the Central Bank so this will be interesting. If interest rates go up by 3-5% in one hit the economy will stall and unemployment grow. The banking system is very fragile and much higher interest rates will push a few banks over together with their lenders.

In Egypt Mubarak and Sisi just tell the Central Bank what to do which is why no one trusts the financial system - least of all under the current Governor. Mad ideas are approved.

Odd set of problems for E given he has 20-40,000 troops fighting god knows who in Syria. A huge number of the military and bureaucrats are also in jail which may mean he's a bit short on skills to deal with hard times. His Central Bank won't play ball - because to do so would be madness and counter productive. The EU won't help him nor will Saudi which leaves Russia which is desperately short of cash and if he was to accept their help the US would tighten the screws.

I think we will find out how sane/reasonable/flexible E. is - it won't be good I fear.

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Re: Wonder what the future is?

Post by carrie » Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:30 pm

When I was in Turkey one of the things I found very surprising was the number of credit cards Turks have. I stood behind a lady one day in the supermarket and her card was rejected, no matter get another one out, that was rejected too, she had a wallet full. It seems that the whole economy is built on credit. Nice cars, nice clothes, nice homes but they all have to be paid for eventually.
Egyptians on the other hand find credit difficult to obtain, BTEC is one shop that sells appliances on credit and some of the air con shops allow buyers to pay over a few months but only to those that they know.
Difficult times ahead for both countries.

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Re: Wonder what the future is?

Post by Who2 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:27 pm

Quote: 'Apparently the US action is a lot more than about the imprisoned US missionary..
Or perhaps the Turks are just pi**ed off with 'Yankie lunatic religious preachers spreading their unresearched ideas... 8)
"The Salvation of Mankind lies in making everything the responsibility of All"
Sophocles.

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Re: Wonder what the future is?

Post by Major Thom » Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:55 am

Same all over Cyprus Carrie, NO CREDIT for anything everything is cash, cars, AC Units, No Mortgages nothing, and an average wage of 500 Euro's a month...

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