The EU referendum

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Re: The EU referendum

Post by newcastle »

Horus wrote:Well in the same vein of playing devils advocate and assuming that the guy at the top is the author of this article:
Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics,
Maybe colours his own views somewhat ;)
I know discounting "experts " , or impugning their motives, is all the rage.......but it's his analysis of the sense, or otherwise, of making critical decisions via referendums that I'm focusing on. I can't even remember if he said anything for or against the IN/OUT arguments....just that it wasn't a good idea for such a momentous decision to be left to , in effect, a minority vote. In fact, re-reading the article he didn't express ANY view on the merits of exit/remain....merely that without a clear and substantial majority of the entire voting public, it would be a dangerous step to take.

I think the last 24 hours speaks volumes and bears him out!

He's quite a clever chap ...as you say, Harvard professor of economics and public policy...and a chess grandmaster. No soapbox dumbo then :)

Regarding this petition for another referendum....it would be just as illegitimate as the first. By all means petition parliament to consider exiting or remaining. Only 100,000 signatures are required. A motion and debate then takes place.

A great pity this didn't happen in the first place...it would have saved a lot of angst. A free vote by the majority of MPs is the only way to legitimately exit the EU.


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Re: The EU referendum

Post by HEPZIBAH »

Found it!

Second Referendum Petition Was Set Up By Outer
Sky News 26 June 2016

The petition for a second referendum on EU membership, which has now topped three million supporters, was set up by a leave campaigner a month ago when he thought his side would lose.

Oliver Healey has disclosed that because there was "no guarantee of a leave victory at that time" he set up the petition "with the intention of making it harder for 'remain' to further shackle us to the EU".

In a Facebook post, the English Democrats member said he felt it was time to "clarify my position on the issue even if it looks bad" and stressed that the remain side had "hijacked" the petition on the government website.

He said: "I am genuinely appalled by the behaviour of some of the remain campaign, how they are conducting themselves post-referendum not just with this petition but generally.

"The referendum was fairly funded; democratically endorsed, every vote was weighted equally and I believe this was a true reflection of the mood of the country. To my fellow leavers, now doubting their decision please keep the faith, we will be fine just stick with it."

The number of signatures is now way above the 100,000 needed for it to be considered for debate by MPs.

It says: "We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based (on) a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum."

Remain campaigners have staged protests over the weekend as tensions in the country mount between the 48% who voted remain and the 52% who voted leave.

Twitter users have reported dinner party "uninvitations" of people they have discovered voted differently but, more seriously, others have reported racist incidents.

Heaven Crawley tweeted: "This evening my daughter left work in Birmingham and saw a group of lads corner a Muslim girl shouting: 'get out, we voted leave'."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/second-refere ... 58194.html
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Horus »

And here is another take on it, a good article from The Telegraph that puts an alternative view of Europe and our referendum, only posted the link as its a bit long to just copy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... u/?ref=yfp
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Mad Dilys »

I've found that usually The Washington Post is pretty informative, but this article today gave me more information than I had before about the EU.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... e-the-e-u/


1. Pay for E.U. bureaucrats

Even as individual nations across Europe have had to impose grinding austerity measures, including slashing pay for government workers, most European Union employees get paid generous wages with special, minimal taxes. The Telegraph — an anti-E.U. newspaper — found in 2014 that many mid-level E.U. workers were taking home more money than British Prime Minister David Cameron.

2. Wasteful travel

By treaty, the European Parliament can only meet in full session in Strasbourg, France. But most of the E.U.’s operation is in Brussels. So one week a month, the whole apparatus — legislators, support staff, lobbyists, journalists and everyone else, 10,000 people in all — travels five hours to Strasbourg. It’s as though Congress could only pass laws one week a month — and it needed to do it in Cleveland. But this parliament has 751 members. Oh, and it can’t propose legislation — it can only approve legislation that comes from the non-elected European Commission. The cost of maintaining two parliamentary seats is estimated at $200 million a year.

3. Overreaching regulation

In Britain, the famous “bendy banana” came to be a symbol of Brussels regulatory overreach, when Brussels set guidelines that bananas should be “free from malformation or abnormal curvature.” Those advocating a British departure from the E.U. said Britons could decide for themselves how bent their bananas could be.

4. Lack of accountability

The big decisions in the E.U. get hammered out behind closed doors, whether it’s inside the European Commission or at meetings of E.U. leaders or ministers. Unlike lawmakers in national legislatures, where much of the sausage-making happens in the open, E.U. leaders bargain in private, then announce their decisions afterward, leaving journalists to play detective to figure out who advocated in the closed conclave.

5. Ignoring rejections from voters

The E.U. has a long history of absorbing national ballot-box defeats, then moving onward to achieve roughly the same result through other means. When voters in France and the Netherlands rejected an E.U. constitution in 2005, E.U. leaders came back two years later with something called the Lisbon Treaty, which implemented many of the same changes but through a different legal path that didn’t require checking with voters first.

6. A Babylon of costly translation

Depending on how you read it, you might find the E.U.’s tendency to translate nearly everything it does into all 24 of its official languages a testimony to its internationalist glory or a wasteful use of resources. By E.U. custom, all public E.U. documents are translated into every language. All high-level E.U. meetings are the same way. The European Commission says it employs 1,750 linguists, 600 full-time interpreters and 3,000 freelancers.

7. Unnecessary bureaucracy

Every E.U. member state gets to appoint a commissioner, whose job is a bit like a cabinet secretary in the United States — a politician charged with administering an agency. But as the E.U. expanded, it needed to dream up new cabinet agencies to match the number of members. So it has one commission for international cooperation and development, another for trade, another for jobs, growth, investment and competitiveness, another for economic and financial affairs, and another for internal market, industry, entrepreneurship and small and medium businesses.

I found number 2 and number 6 were news to me and really rather shocking.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/articl ... bJhqBql0VZ

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-manoeuvred and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

To become leader of the Tory party in the first ballot you need to get over 60% of the vote, for a Tory to **** up the country he couldn't even set that threshold.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

Pound falls further in Asian trading on Monday

Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, said: "We are still looking for another 10% fall for the pound against the dollar in the coming months as data confirms the economic slowdown and monetary policy expectations increase."


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Re: The EU referendum

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

@MD - quite interesting article. Never knew 75% of it. Very interesting.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

https://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/ ... referendum

Elections and referenda don't come with a two-week, open-box return policy. Maybe they should. Because as the results of the European Union referendum (which was technically an advisory non-binding referendum for MPs to consider) emerged early on Friday morning, Leave voters across the UK realised that they had opened a Pandora's Box of negative consequences. And worst of all, they quickly learned that they'd been repeatedly misled to by the Leave campaign.

Within hours of winning the vote, Nigel Farage admitted that Leave advocates had "made a mistake" when they said £350 million a week would be redirected to the NHS. People had also been told that leaving the EU would put the UK in full control of immigration. Evan Davis found out on Newsnight that this too was untrue.
Will Brexit actually reduce migration to Britain? Maybe not - BBC Newsnight

And there's more. The Leave campaign had advised concerned citizens not to listen to the ‘experts’ and ‘the scaremongers’ and that the economy would be just fine. And yet, in the first day of trading following the result, two trillion US dollars were wiped off the world’s share prices. UK markets lost more money in one day than the country paid into the EU since we joined it many years ago (most of which came back in grants, anyway). These losses affect everyone's pensions, jobs, salaries, and government income, and they will push Britain towards a recession that will make it even more difficult to deliver essential public services.

The pound dropped to a 31-year low, with serious impact on British imports and people's holiday travel abroad. And the UK suffered the ignominy of having its credit outlook lowered to ‘negative’ by ratings agency Moody's on the expectation that Brexit would deliver a serious blow to the UK economy.

In the political sphere, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced that a second Scottish independence referendum is highly likely, while Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland have called for a vote on Irish reunification. Some have even suggested for London to become an independent state so it can stay part of Europe (and possibly part of Scotland as well).

Meanwhile, the vast majority of young people, who voted overwhelmingly to remain, feel their own future has been taken out of their hands by an aging UK population that will not have to suffer the consequences of a lifetime out of Europe. As one woman said to me "up to yesterday I thought I had the choice of living and working in 28 European countries, now I'm restricted to one!"

The decision over the UK's future was based on false promises that pushed a minority of the UK's total voting population (17 million out of 46 million) to vote the way it did. Two years before Brexit will even become reality, according to EU rules, it is already having massive consequences on the UK economy, and on society. Brexit has fractured the country more than any other event in recent memory.

Based on the misrepresentation made by the Leave campaign, Parliament needs to take the petition of more than three million people to call for a new referendum seriously. The alternative is to watch a rapid decline of Britain's health and wellbeing.



When Nigel Farage was interviewed a few months ago he said that he would call for a second referendum if Remain won by a narrow margin. "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way," he stated. He went on to say that Remain needed to win by two thirds to end it and avoid a second referendum. Mr. Farage and the Leave campaign should now accept that the reverse scenario also warrants a second look.

The vast majority of MPs voted in by the electorate want the UK to stay part of Europe. In light of the misrepresentations of the Leave campaign, Parliament should reject the results of this non-binding referendum as Nicola Sturgeon has announced she will do in Scotland’s Parliament. Before the UK government invokes Article 50 of the European Treaty and does irreversible damage to the United Kingdom, the people’s elected representatives must decide whether the facts that have emerged really warrant abandoning the EU and whether a second referendum will be needed.

If you agree that Parliament should take a second look at the EU referendum, please sign this petition.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

MichaelWhite @MichaelWhite
Osborne's upbeat 7am statement one of his better performances: first officer arrives on bridge of SS Titanic while Boris pleads with iceberg
8:26 AM - 27 Jun 2016

So far quote of the day!

Conservative peer Lord Heseltine says "the people who created this mess" - Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage - must be the ones to carry out the negotiations with the EU - and do it quickly. "If you put anyone else in charge they will disown it," he says.
The former deputy prime minister says those negotiations "will produce a quite unacceptable deal for this country and the House of Commons will then say, 'No, we can't accept that.'
"And the only way to deal with that is to have a general election or another referendum."
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by newcastle »

Let's get real here.

It ain't gonna happen :stp

Even though the referendum result is not binding on parliament; even though it appears very probable that a majority of the electorate, if they had voted, would have voted REMAIN.....the government, through their statements prior to the referendum and their actions afterwards, have got themselves into a situation where a volte face is impossible.

This petition is an irrelevant sideshow which will be mocked and derided by brexiters and, ultimately, ignored by parliament.

Calling for a referendum in the first place, and declaring that its outcome would be pursued by the government (irrespective of the wishes of parliament) was a huge mistake, contrary to our constitution.

Unfortunately, like taking an overdose of barbiturates, it's a mistake which cannot be rectified......but it need not be fatal.

Time now to get on with the consequences of an eventual exit, the revised terms of our relationship with Europe, and the rest of the world, and stop bickering about what might. or should, have been.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by newcastle »

Here's one REMAIN man's view....doing the rounds on social media (apologies if you've already seen it):

· Dom Beaven
20 hrs · Bath, United Kingdom ·
Right. F*ck this. We're ALL up sh*t creek and we need a paddle. Now, not in three months.

Fellow Remain voters: Enough already. Yes, we're all p*ssed off but navel gazing ain't gonna help. Not all 17 million Leave voters can possibly be racist northern pensioners without an O level to their name. Maybe they have a point about this quitting the EU thing? Maybe not. Whatever, we are where we are and no amount a whinging is gonna change that. Allegedly we're the intelligent ones, so get your thinking caps on.

Leave voters. Well done. Good game. We hear you. Now you need to get stuck in to the aftermath and not just p*ss off back to Wetherspoons. (Just banter, twats!). And the first person to say they "want their country back" gets deported to f*cking Gibraltar. OK?

Politicians.

David. F*ck off. Shut the door behind you. Now.

George. You may be a twat but you're our twat. Plus you know the passwords for our Junior Savers account. Get your calculator. Drop the face-like-a-slapped-ass routine. You're on.

Boris. Sorry mate. That photo of you abseiling by your scrotum over the London Olympics while waving a Union Jack can't ever be un-taken. Plus, you'll never be able to appear on Question Time again without some sturdy Glaswegian nurse (ST?) asking where the f*ck her 350 million quid is. Not only will she have a very good point, she'll be wearing a T shirt that shows you gurning in front of that f*cking bus! No captains hat for you I'm afraid.

Theresa. You're in charge love. Get the biggest shoulder pads you've got. We need Ming The Merciless in drag and you'll scare the sh*t out of 'em.

Nicola. Yep. Fair cop. You probably could get us on a technicality, as could London. But we f*cking love shortbread. And oil. And to be honest you're probably the best politician we've got, so we need you on side. Sort your lot out and we promise never to mention that Jimmy Krankie thing again (although it is pretty uncanny) and we'll make you a Dame once we're sorted. Bring Ruth Davidson. She kicks ass.

Opposition party. We'll need one. Someone take Jeremy and John back to the British Legion Club where you found them. Take Nigel as well. Give back their sandals, buy them a pint, then go to Heathrow and collect David Milliband. F*ck it. Lets gets Ed Balls as well. He keeps George on his toes. I think he works on the lottery kiosk at Morrisons now?

Oh. And Mark Carney. Give him a knighthood and tell him to keep that sh*t coming. We definitely need more of that good sh*t!

Everyone set? Right. Hold the Easyjet. We're going to Brussels and this ain't no hen party.

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Re: The EU referendum

Post by newcastle »

Bombay wrote:MichaelWhite @MichaelWhite
Osborne's upbeat 7am statement one of his better performances: first officer arrives on bridge of SS Titanic while Boris pleads with iceberg
8:26 AM - 27 Jun 2016

So far quote of the day!

Conservative peer Lord Heseltine says "the people who created this mess" - Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage - must be the ones to carry out the negotiations with the EU - and do it quickly. "If you put anyone else in charge they will disown it," he says.
The former deputy prime minister says those negotiations "will produce a quite unacceptable deal for this country and the House of Commons will then say, 'No, we can't accept that.'
"And the only way to deal with that is to have a general election or another referendum."
Heseltine?...a.k.a. Tarzan?? Is he still alive? :lol:

I see where he's coming from....alas, it's usually called "cloud cuckoo land".

In your dreams Michael.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

newcastle wrote:Let's get real here.

It ain't gonna happen :stp

Even though the referendum result is not binding on parliament; even though it appears very probable that a majority of the electorate, if they had voted, would have voted REMAIN.....the government, through their statements prior to the referendum and their actions afterwards, have got themselves into a situation where a volte face is impossible.

This petition is an irrelevant sideshow which will be mocked and derided by brexiters and, ultimately, ignored by parliament.

Calling for a referendum in the first place, and declaring that its outcome would be pursued by the government (irrespective of the wishes of parliament) was a huge mistake, contrary to our constitution.

Unfortunately, like taking an overdose of barbiturates, it's a mistake which cannot be rectified......but it need not be fatal.

Time now to get on with the consequences of an eventual exit, the revised terms of our relationship with Europe, and the rest of the world, and stop bickering about what might. or should, have been.
Leaving the EU is what's not going to happen but only time will tell once everyone's suffered enough to get the next vote right.

There won't be a new vote yet because the decision will be reversed and those who think they have won won't like it yet.

Even the Germans are saying it costs Norway to be in the single market as much as the UK contributes to the EU.
And for the UK to be in the single market its not going to come for free.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

newcastle wrote:
Bombay wrote:MichaelWhite @MichaelWhite
Osborne's upbeat 7am statement one of his better performances: first officer arrives on bridge of SS Titanic while Boris pleads with iceberg
8:26 AM - 27 Jun 2016

So far quote of the day!

Conservative peer Lord Heseltine says "the people who created this mess" - Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage - must be the ones to carry out the negotiations with the EU - and do it quickly. "If you put anyone else in charge they will disown it," he says.
The former deputy prime minister says those negotiations "will produce a quite unacceptable deal for this country and the House of Commons will then say, 'No, we can't accept that.'
"And the only way to deal with that is to have a general election or another referendum."
Heseltine?...a.k.a. Tarzan?? Is he still alive? :lol:

I see where he's coming from....alas, it's usually called "cloud cuckoo land".

In your dreams Michael.
Yes I never thought I would be quoting him!

But even as much as the Tories under Maggie hated Europe she wasn't stupid enough to hold a referendum to leave.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

...but it's a fragile peace
BBC Posted at
10:32
"The chancellor didn’t say an awful lot, but it does look like Article 50 will definitely be delayed until a new PM is appointed – probably November - and can lead the renegotiations. In this regard he has the backing of Angela Merkel, who has been a lot softer than some of her European counterparts," Joe Rundle from ETX Capital says after George Osborne's statement.

"The longer the delay, the greater chance of a fudge to backtrack on the referendum. This is the kind of uncertainty that might offer a flicker of hope to nervous investors. A second vote is not off the table, especially with immense pressure coming from Scotland and Northern Ireland, not to mention the 500 or so MPs who supported Remain.

"Any sense of calm is very fragile and the situation could change rapidly. High levels of market volatility is expected over the coming days and weeks."
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by newcastle »

Bombay wrote:...but it's a fragile peace
BBC Posted at
10:32
"The chancellor didn’t say an awful lot, but it does look like Article 50 will definitely be delayed until a new PM is appointed – probably November - and can lead the renegotiations. In this regard he has the backing of Angela Merkel, who has been a lot softer than some of her European counterparts," Joe Rundle from ETX Capital says after George Osborne's statement.

"The longer the delay, the greater chance of a fudge to backtrack on the referendum. This is the kind of uncertainty that might offer a flicker of hope to nervous investors. A second vote is not off the table, especially with immense pressure coming from Scotland and Northern Ireland, not to mention the 500 or so MPs who supported Remain.

"Any sense of calm is very fragile and the situation could change rapidly. High levels of market volatility is expected over the coming days and weeks."
I can't see a "half in - half out" scenario being viable. It would be the worst of both worlds. Either we activate Clause 50....or we don't.

Unless parliament grows a spine and balls (and I see no sign of that) they will, however reluctantly, sanction the letter of withdrawal and start rescinding the various laws which give Europe superiority over our legislature. The process will take a few years.

The only glimmer of hope I see ( for those who would have us REMAIN) is that there is a dramatic change in the attitude of the other European members. Principally a retreat from the federalisation of Europe and a drastic overhaul of the entire bureaucratic edifice based in Brussels.

Despite Angela Merkel's conciliatory tones, I see this as a VERY remote prospect.
Last edited by newcastle on Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by Bombay »

Could there be a second referendum?

Norman Smith
Assistant political editor
Posted at
09:05
Any chance this referendum vote could be undone? Could there be another one?

Well, It's a long shot but it's not impossible. Boris Johnson was the one, remember, who first floated the idea of a second referendum during the campaign - he raised the idea that we could vote to leave and then go back to the EU and get a better deal.



Nicola Sturgeon has also said she's prepared to put a spanner in the works, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is making reassuring noises, telling the UK to take it's time, not to rush out of the EU door.

So you'd have to be a very brave person to suggest that under no circumstance is a second referendum going to happen.
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by newcastle »

Many a true word spoken in jest :lol:

phpBB [video]
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Re: The EU referendum

Post by newcastle »

Bombay wrote:Could there be a second referendum?

Norman Smith
Assistant political editor
Posted at
09:05
Any chance this referendum vote could be undone? Could there be another one?

Well, It's a long shot but it's not impossible. Boris Johnson was the one, remember, who first floated the idea of a second referendum during the campaign - he raised the idea that we could vote to leave and then go back to the EU and get a better deal.



Nicola Sturgeon has also said she's prepared to put a spanner in the works, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is making reassuring noises, telling the UK to take it's time, not to rush out of the EU door.

So you'd have to be a very brave person to suggest that under no circumstance is a second referendum going to happen.
I HOPE that it's now sunk in that referendums are NOT the way to conduct our affairs :stp

I concede that it would be hubris to say that a second referendum cannot or will not happen. They were stupid enough to do it once.....
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